[Tropical] Storm Strike Probability Bulletin

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT74 KNHC 230832
SPFAT4
HURRICANE WILMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  86.6 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  1AM CDT WED OCT 26 2005

LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E

24.7N  83.3W      41  3  X  X 44   OCEAN CITY MD      X  X  2 10 12
27.4N  79.5W       X 23  6  X 29   ATLANTIC CITY NJ   X  X  1 10 11
32.5N  74.5W       X  X 14  5 19   NEW YORK CITY NY   X  X  X 11 11
MUCF 221N 805W     2  4  X  X  6   MONTAUK POINT NY   X  X  X 12 12
MUSN 216N 826W    12  2  X  X 14   PROVIDENCE RI      X  X  X 12 12
MUHA 230N 824W    29  3  X  X 32   NANTUCKET MA       X  X  X 13 13
MUAN 219N 850W    59  X  X  X 59   HYANNIS MA         X  X  X 13 13
MMCZ 205N 869W    34  X  X  X 34   BOSTON MA          X  X  X 11 11
MYEG 235N 758W     X  1  1  X  2   PORTLAND ME        X  X  X 10 10
MYAK 241N 776W     X  5  2  X  7   BAR HARBOR ME      X  X  X  9  9
MYNN 251N 775W     X  7  5  X 12   EASTPORT ME        X  X  X  8  8
MYGF 266N 787W     X 19  6  X 25   ST JOHN NB         X  X  X  6  6
BERMUDA            X  X  X  2  2   MONCTON NB         X  X  X  5  5
MARATHON FL       11 20  X  X 31   YARMOUTH NS        X  X  X  8  8
MIAMI FL           2 27  1  X 30   HALIFAX NS         X  X  X  5  5
W PALM BEACH FL    X 27  3  X 30   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  X  X  2  2
FT PIERCE FL       X 26  4  X 30   EDDY POINT NS      X  X  X  2  2
COCOA BEACH FL     X 23  5  X 28   KEY WEST FL       23 12  X  X 35
DAYTONA BEACH FL   X 16  7  X 23   MARCO ISLAND FL    8 26  1  X 35
JACKSONVILLE FL    X  6  7  X 13   FT MYERS FL        5 28  X  X 33
SAVANNAH GA        X  2  6  X  8   VENICE FL          4 25  1  X 30
CHARLESTON SC      X  1  8  2 11   TAMPA FL           1 22  2  X 25
MYRTLE BEACH SC    X  X 10  2 12   CEDAR KEY FL       X 12  2  X 14
WILMINGTON NC      X  X 10  4 14   ST MARKS FL        X  3  1  X  4
MOREHEAD CITY NC   X  X 10  6 16   APALACHICOLA FL    X  2  1  X  3
CAPE HATTERAS NC   X  X  9  7 16   GULF 29N 85W       X  4  X  X  4
NORFOLK VA         X  X  4  9 13

COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  1AM MON TO  1PM MON
C FROM  1PM MON TO  1AM TUE
D FROM  1AM TUE TO  1AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  1AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER PASCH


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