[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151817
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOW OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W DRIFTING W.  NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 79W-81W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 77W-82W.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA.  ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM
TODAY AT 1900 UTC.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS JAMAICA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND HAITI.  NUMEROUS
WEATHER MODELS PREDICT THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15 KT.
CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
33W-37W...AND FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 33W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF THIS WAVE IS BEING MASKED BY UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 63W-66W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 10N29W 15N39W 12N50W 15N60W.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 16W-19W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N
BETWEEN 22W-25W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 27W-30W...AND FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 57W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING EXISTS FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO
CENTRAL MEXICO PRODUCING 10-15 KT NE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N.  FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF
20N.  EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  LIKEWISE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1005 MB LOW WITH TROUGHS...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W
ARE THE DOMINATE FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN ADDITION TO
CONVECTION ALREADY MENTIONED...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 72W-76W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 76W-83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN
87W-89W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N79W...A FAVORABLE
CONDITION FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE SPECIAL FEATURE.  EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT
FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF S FLORIDA NEAR 25N79W
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS DEPICTED BY RADAR
FROM 25N-26N BETWEEN 79W-81W.  A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N61W 28N66W 27N72W.  A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N59W 24N66W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
27N-32N BETWEEN 53W-59W...AND FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 65W-67W.  A
WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N43W.  A
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N19W 28N24W
27N30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN
27W-32W.  OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLAND NEAR 19N60W HAS DIFFLUENCE
TO THE SE ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 56W-60W.  A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 25W-45W
PRODUCING NW FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF
35W.


$$
FORMOSA


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