[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 30W S
OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD CURVATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
SHOWS SOME BANDING TO THE E OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N14N BETWEEN 27W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE
/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM 6N-18N BETWEEN 27W-33W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 6N38W 18N43W MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE DESTINATION IS...IT IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST. WAVE IS RAPIDLY BEING INCORPORATED INTO
THE CURVATURE OF THE WAVE TO THE E. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ TO 6N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 56W/57W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES THROUGH
A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES HAVE REDUCED ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 5N13W 16N29W THEN ALONG 11N32W
9N40W 9N62W. DEEPEST CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES ABOVE. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
DOT THE AREA FROM 1N-7N E OF 16W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PLANTED OVER THE AREA ANCHORED
BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N85W WITH RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE W ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS
OVER THE GULF WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORM OFF THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 23N.
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IS BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE AND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE EFFECTING THE GULF. FARTHER
E...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW SITS JUST OFF THE COAST JUST S OF DAYTONA
FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT RUNNING SW JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
INTO THE E GULF NEAR 25N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE E GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
A SIMILAR PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AFFECTING THE
ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
BOUTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE CURRENT SET-UP HIGHLIGHTS AN
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE TIP OF
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO A CENTRAL 1006 MB LOW S OF JAMAICA NEAR
16N77W THEN N THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/W HAITI. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS SE OF THIS AXIS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF HEAVIER
CONVECTION OVER NE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS AND N OF THE SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMAICA AND HAITI. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR TO CHANGE
MUCH OVER THE WEEKEND AND AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE E WHICH IS
GIVING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS A BRIEF RESPITE.
ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AND LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION ARE IN CONTROL
OVER THE NW AND FAR E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
FORMED S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM
67W-74W WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...
OTHERWISE THOSE AREAS ARE ENJOYING A RELATIVELY CLEAR MORNING.

WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS TO 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/W HAITI TO
ANOTHER 1006 MB LOW NEAR 23N70W TO A 1003 MB LOW NEAR BERMUDA.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS COLLOCATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO
UPPER LOWS LOCATED NEAR 33N65W AND 24N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN
120/150 NM OF LINE 25N63W TO 32N55W WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE W...HAVING SPREAD TO 69W INCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A LARGE AND TUMBLING MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N54W IS MEANDERING WESTWARD. LARGE
AREA OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW IS BEING PULLED S ACROSS MOST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
BEING PULLED AROUND THE S SIDE OF THE LOW. HENCE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF 14N BETWEEN 51W-60W. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS FROM A SMALL UPPER LOW
NEAR 27N24W TO 18N34W AND HAS ENHANCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
1014 MB LOW NEAR 23N44W ON A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 18N50W TO
31N30W. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE N PORTION OF THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM A
LINE FROM 30N36W TO BEYOND 32N30W. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE TROPICS E OF 40W DUE TO TWO
TROPICAL WAVES...ITCZ... AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR
9N28W.

$$
WALLACE



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