[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140516
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
29W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE SHOWS SOME BANDING ESPECIALLY TO THE E OF THE AXIS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N
BETWEEN 26W-30W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 7N37W 19N41W MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO LIE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST...AND WITH THE STRONG TILTED STRUCTURE
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE WAVE MAY BE BECOMING
INCORPORATED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE TO THE E.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ
TO 4N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 55W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS BEEN TRUDGING
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES DUE TO AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 17N54W WHICH HAS REDUCED ANY CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 16N27W THEN ALONG 9N30W 11N38W
THEN ALONG 6N39W 10N52W. DEEPEST CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 33W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PLANTED OVER THE AREA ANCHORED
BY AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N87W WITH RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING FROM NEAR MEXICO CITY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
W ATLC. THIS PATTERN IS CREATING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE
GULF WITH BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OFF THE
N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA S OF 23N. A COLD/STATIONARY
FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS TO JUST N OF CORPUS CHRISTI
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO N MEXICO JUST N OF LAREDO TO A 1007
MB LOW OVER N/CENTRAL MEXICO. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO FALL...ALBEIT SLOWLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S/CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS THE BORDER
INTO MEXICO. FARTHER E...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW SITS JUST OFF THE
COAST JUST S OF DAYTONA FLORIDA WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
RUNNING SW JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE E GULF NEAR
25N84W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE FLORIDA BAY. THIS WILL PUSH OF DRY AIR
S...WHICH MAY MAKE IT TO THE S GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN...
THE STAGNANT PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS STILL AFFECTING THE
ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA AND THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH BOUTS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE CURRENT SET-UP
HIGHLIGHTS AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE TIP
OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO JAMAICA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SE OF THIS AXIS IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS
OF HEAVIER CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND SURROUNDING A 1006 MB
SURFACE LOW BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS
HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH. THERE
IS NO IMMEDIATE END IN SIGHT FOR THE WET WEATHER WITH THE
MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE E WHICH COULD
DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS LIKE PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MON OR TUE. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AND LITTLE TO
NO CONVECTION ARE IN CONTROL OVER THE NW AND FAR E CARIBBEAN.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF
18N...OTHERWISE THOSE AREAS ARE ENJOYING A RELATIVELY CLEAR
NIGHT.

WEST ATLANTIC...
UPPER HIGH ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS
FLORIDA AND MOST OF THE BAHAMAS TO 75W. THE CARIBBEAN SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO A 1006 MB
LOW NEAR 23N69W TO A 1003 MB LOW NEAR BERMUDA. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS COLLOCATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO UPPER LOWS
LOCATED NEAR 33N66W AND 23N71W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 300 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WHILE MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
W...HAVING SPREAD OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS.

EAST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
A LARGE AND TUMBLING MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 NM E OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N54W AND IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15
KT. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE LOW IS BEING PULLED S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IS BEING PULLED N ON THE E SIDE OF THE LOW. HENCE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY W OF 40W
EXCEPT FOR NORMAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SWINGING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS FROM A SMALL
UPPER LOW NEAR 27N25W TO 19N36W AND HAS ENHANCED THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 22N44W ON A SURFACE TROUGH FROM
20N51W TO 25N38W. THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN THE TROPICS E OF 40W DUE TO TWO TROPICAL WAVES...ITCZ...
AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N26W.

$$
WALLACE


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