[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110529
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM VINCE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.4N 9.5W AT 11/0300 UTC
ABOUT 48 NM SSW OF CABO DE SAO VICENTE OR THE SOUTHWESTERN MOST
TIP OF PORTUGAL. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS IS NOTED WITH A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER WITHIN 30 NM OF 36.5N8W. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO INLAND OVER SPAIN AND DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AFRICAN DUST N OF 10N LIMITING
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 23W-26W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 18N MOVING W 15
KT WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. WAVE CONTINUES TO
BE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST LIMITING CONVECTION TO
THE ITCZ AND SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS
SE OF THE LOW WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 11N33.5W-9N37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
6.5N-12N BETWEEN 33W-38W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE AND NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

W/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 20N MOVING W
10-15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. LOW LEVEL
CENTER APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING LEAVING A MID-LEVEL CENTER.
CONVECTION IS DUE TO UPPER FLOW NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N28W 10N52W 13N59W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180
NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 13N W OF 8W AND FROM 3N-13N
BETWEEN 20W-33W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 40W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 89W
FROM THE N GULF COAST TO THE YUCATAN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
SURFACE WINDS. WEAK SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
LOUISIANA COAST SW TO THE S TEXAS COAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EVERGLADES
OF FLORIDA HAVE MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA BAY AND ARE DISSIPATING.
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM INLAND OVER SE TEXAS BETWEEN
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE INTO THE GULF TO 27N94W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED
IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERING THE AREA EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE. A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS DIGGING S OVER W
TEXAS AND MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM JUST W OF JAMAICA
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 17N83W TO ALONG THE COAST OF
HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 79W AND THE YUCATAN. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER
THE E TIP OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. LIGHT TO MODERATE SW
SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROUGH IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ESE ALONG 15N74W TO OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W. DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH
IN THE W ATLC PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SE OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO HONDURAS
NEAR 15N84W. FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE
THREATENING MUDSLIDES EXISTS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE E TIP
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN ALONG
22N74W TO 28N79W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGING FROM THE GULF
EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. A LARGE CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N67W GENERATING DIFFLUENCE TO THE W
WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N FROM
74W-78W AND ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE. DIFFLUENCE TO THE S SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW IS GENERATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE
FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W SE ALONG 21N71W TO 20N66W. TO
THE E OF THE UPPER LOW GENEROUS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN
N GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
212N-28N BETWEEN 56W-66W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 56W-63W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED N OF
THE REGION WITH RIDGING EXTENDING S TO 24N FROM 40W-56W. AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 26N FROM 27W-40W. WESTERLY FLOW
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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