[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 110308
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

CORRECTED PRODUCT TIME

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM VINCE... LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 55 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST TIP OF PORTUGAL.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS... AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... AND THE NORTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES... AND THEN CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.  WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA... SOME
GRADUAL SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO
IS CENTERED ABOUT 240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE
WARMER GULFSTREAM. THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER OR
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... WHICH WOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO
BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHFSAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

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