[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM VINCE IS NEAR 35.9N 11.6W AT 10/2100 UTC ABOUT
170 MILES WSW OF CABO DE SAO VICENTE OR THE SOUTHWESTERN MOST
TIP OF PORTUGAL.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
ARE NOTED VOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  INCREASING WLY
SHEAR... COOLER WATER AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES
THE COASTS OF SPAIN/PORTUGAL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EASTERN ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.
THE WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AS WELL AS GFS
MODEL FIELDS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 5N-21N BETWEEN 20W-23W...AND FROM
5N-7 BETWEEN 23W-25W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N34W.
THE WAVE IS ACTING AS THE LEADING EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST THAT
EXTENDS EASTWARD TO THE CAPE VERDES AND W AFRICA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 32W-36W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N
BETWEEN 31W-36W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE N OF
THE ITCZ.

W/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 20N MOVING W
10 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N59W.  THE LOW
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING WITH A MID-LEVEL CENTER LEFT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 55W-57W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N30W 10N50W 15N60W. IN
ADDITION TO CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-13W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
13W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 90W FROM THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA TO YUCATAN.   WINDS ARE
MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN GULF WHERE RETURN FLOW HAS
INCREASED THE WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE SE
TEXAS COAST.  A SQUALL LINE IS OFF THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
COASTS ALONG 30N92W 28N96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 92W-96W.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER
E TEXAS FROM BEAUMONT WESTWARD ACROSS GALVESTON BAY INTO S
TEXAS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER N TEXAS.  RESIDUAL CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN OVER THE W GULF MOSTLY FROM SW OF LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM JAMAICA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS.  AN EMBEDDED 1007 MB LOW IS N OF HONDURAS NEAR
18N84W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH.  THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 60W-80W HAS CONTINUED SURFACE
WESTERLY FLOW.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DIFFLUENCE FROM THE
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N66W IS
PRODUCING NE FLOW AND PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF
11N BETWEEN 60W-80W.  FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES EXISTS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY
IN HIGHER TERRAIN.  TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH AN ENHANCED
CHANCE OF FLOODING WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A NEW TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING YUCATAN AND WESTERN CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS TO N OF PUERTO RICO
ALONG 27N77W 19N66W WITH TWO EMBEDDED 1006 MB LOWS AT 25N76W AND
19N66W.  FURTHER E...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 57W-65W DUE TO MORE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 28N66W.
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N53W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS...W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH 26N30W TO NEAR
25N30W.  THE CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS WELL INTO THE DEEP TROPICS
WITH WLY WINDS NOTED AS FAR S AS 14N.  SHORTWAVE IN THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDES.. ENHANCING
TSTMS NEAR THOSE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA


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