[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 102136
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM VINCE... LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT
170 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST TIP OF PORTUGAL.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS... AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND
THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES... AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS
IS PRODUCING SOME BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.  WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA... SOME GRADUAL NON-TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A HUNDRED MILES OR SO
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
WEATHER SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO
IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA. SOME MODERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND NEARBY SHIPS INDICATE WINDS OF
30 TO 35 MPH ARE OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT LOW
PRESSURE AREA AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD AT 20 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHFSAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

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