[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM VINCE IS NEAR 34.9N 14.2W AT 10/1500 UTC ABOUT
175 MILES NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS MOVING E 18 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.  CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING WITH NEW
CELLS FIRING IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER.
INCREASING WLY SHEAR... COOLER WATER AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD KILL THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COASTS OF SPAIN/PORTUGAL.  THE PRESSURE MAY BE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN ESTIMATED WITH A NEARBY BUOY REPORTING 996.7
MB AS THE CENTER PASSED OVER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ADDED ALONG 22W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT.  THE
WAVE CAN BE SEEN IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AS WELL AS GFS
MODEL FIELDS.  SW SHEAR IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 19W-23W AND
MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11 BETWEEN 18W-24W.
THIS WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING THRU THE CAPE
VERDES OVERNIGHT ENDING BY LATE TUE.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. AN ITCZ CIRCULATION IS NOTED NEAR 10N35W THAT MIGHT BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE... OTHERWISE AN EXACT AXIS IS DIFFICULT
TO FIND.  FOR NOW WE'LL KEEP THIS WAVE NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF
AFRICAN DUST THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD TO ABOUT THE CAPE VERDES BUT
IT COULD BE MOVED SLIGHTLY AHEAD TO CORRESPOND WITH THE ITCZ
CIRCULATION ON THE NEXT ANALYSIS.  ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 30W-37W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THIS IS AN ILL-DEFINED WAS WITH POSITION BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION AND A LITTLE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 10N44.5W.

W/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 20N MOVING W
5-10 KT WITH A 1012 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 13N.  THE LOW
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING WITH A MID-LEVEL CENTER LEFT NEAR
13N57W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN
55W-58W.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 15N MOVING
W 10 KT.  WAVE POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION WITH LOW-MID
LEVEL WLY FLOW MASKING ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE SIGNATURE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N28W 11N43W 11N50W 13N55W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
18W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
3.5N37W 7N34W 9N34W 11N40W 11N47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS
ALONG 90W FROM THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA TO YUCATAN.   WINDS ARE
MOSTLY LIGHT EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN GULF WHERE RETURN FLOW HAS
INCREASED THE WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE SE
TEXAS COAST.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST JUST S OF
BEAUMONT WESTWARD ACROSS GALVESTON BAY INTO S TEXAS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 94W DUE TO A WEAK UPPER
IMPULSE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IN SE TEXAS ROTATING AROUND THE SE
PART OF THE CUTOFF LOW IN SE COLORADO.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHERN USA.   SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE W GULF MOSTLY SW OF
LOUISIANA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.. OTHERWISE LIGHT NE WINDS
ARE THE RULE.  A COLD FRONT COULD ENTER THE GULF ON FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS CAUSING A LARGE AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY.  ONE AREA HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM 12N-JAMAICA BETWEEN 72W-80W WITH STRONG WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OVERTOPPED BY STRONG ELY UPPER FLOW.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THROUGH A
1008 MB LOW NEAR 18N84.5W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT OF THE
LOW DUE TO STRONG ELY SHEAR.  UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS JUST S OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO... PROVIDING A VERY DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
WITH THE RIDGE AND A LARGE UPPER LOW N OF THE AREA.  1008 MB
SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED NEAR E PUERTO RICO DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT.  SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 61W-66W
BETWEEN 12N-18N... MOSTLY OUT OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE TIME
BEING.  HEAVIEST TSTMS ARE ORIENTED FROM NNE TO SSW FROM 18N62W
TO 12N64.5W.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS COVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N
OF GUADELOUPE.  HEAVY RAIN... FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIFE-THREATENING MUDSLIDES EXISTS IN THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.   TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF FLOODING... AND SOME
DRYING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING YUCATAN AND W & CENTRAL
CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS
E CUBA TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN
THE W ATLC W OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY
A LARGE...STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 28N66W. THIS IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
AROUND THE LOW FROM OVER THE SE BAHAMAS...THE GREATER ANTILLES
EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN...AND SOMEWHAT IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 21N BETWEEN 60W-75W
IN THE ATLC.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 26N78W INTO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 24N75W ALONG THE BAHAMA
CHAIN TO NEAR PUERTO RICO. A SERIES OF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SLOW
TRACK TO THE N.  BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS...W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH 26N30W TO NEAR
25N30W.  THE CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS WELL INTO THE DEEP TROPICS
WITH WLY WINDS NOTED AS FAR S AS 14N.  SHORTWAVE IN THE
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDES.. ENHANCING
TSTMS NEAR THOSE ISLANDS.  AT THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS FROM 23N21W TO
31N36W.   UPPER RIDGING REMAINS ALONG 9N-10N IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
W OF 30W TO NEAR 50W PROVIDING SOME LIFT FOR ITCZ
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

$$
BLAKE

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