[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 100828
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

VINCE HAS BECOME RAPIDLY LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AS A BLAST OF
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS OVERTAKEN THE CYCLONE.  CONVECTION IS BEING
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND THE EYE HAS DISINTEGRATED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WITH VINCE OVER 23C WATERS AND
THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...A CONTINUED RAPID DECLINE IS
EXPECTED.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW VINCE BECOMING
ABSORBED OR DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...BUT VINCE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE
THEN.

VINCE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 070/10.  AS THE CONVECTION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUE
TO DECOUPLE...A SLIGHT TURN BACK TO THE LEFT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
CENTER DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFDN
SOLUTIONS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0900Z 34.8N  16.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 36.4N  14.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED


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