[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE VINCE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.5N 17.8W AT 10/0300 UTC
ABOUT 490 NM ESE OF THE AZORES OR ABOUT 110 NM NNW OF MADEIRA
ISLANDS MOVING NE AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80
KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. VINCE REMAINS A SMALL
HURRICANE WITH VERY LITTLE CONVECTION. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT ONLY 15 NM FROM THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE CENTER FROM
33N-35N BETWEEN 16.5W-18W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF AFRICAN DUST AND
IS ALSO ENHANCING SOME ITCZ CONVECTION S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT.
VERY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH LITTLE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

W/CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 20N MOVING W 10
KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ON THE WAVE NEAR 13N. WELL-DEFINED WAVE
WITH CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW FROM
13N-16N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 53W/56W.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 16N MOVING W 10 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND SSW SURFACE
FLOW...THUS WAVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS MASKED WITH NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N28W 9N44W 13N52W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-12N
BETWEEN 15W-40W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN
UNANALYZED HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. A SMALL 1006 MB
LOW NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA IS MOVING E TO INLAND NW OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS INLAND
OVER THE SE U.S. DIPPING TO THE N GULF COAST. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS MOVING OFF THE U.S. COAST INTO THE W ATLC. UPPER
HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING W UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF WITH IT STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS IS CREATING A VERY
TRANQUIL NIGHT WITH NO SHOWERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS. THIS HOWEVER WILL CHANGE BY MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CUBA THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N84W
TO THE NW COAST OF HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 60/75 NM
OF LINE FROM 21N83W SW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W.
BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N81W WITH
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 14N61W. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
UNUSUAL SW SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING LARGE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION E OF 80W AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION S OF 15N W OF 80W. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE COMPLEX. THIS WILL
CONTINUE AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS MOST THE AREA THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES EXTENDS JUST INTO
THE W ATLC WITH THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE REGION.
UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE...STRONG CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 26N63W. THIS
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE LOW FROM OVER THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN...
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE S OF LINE FROM 26N76W 19N66W TO 21N62W TO OVER
THE CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 350/400 NM SE OF LINE 21N62W TO 24N60W...
AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N52W TO 30N60W ON THE E SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW. EMBEDDED BENEATH IS UPPER LOW...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 75W FROM THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N TO
28N AND A 1011 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWENTY-TWO...IS CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N66W. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS E OF 50W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM JUST
E OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS...W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THROUGH
23N27W TO NEAR 18N36W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 24W-50W WITH A 1026 MB
HIGH N OF THE REGION. AFRICAN DUST CAN BE SEEN ON INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HINTING AT ITS DENSITY...S OF A LINE FROM
THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO 20N30W. ALL OF THIS IS PRODUCING RATHER
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC E OF 50W. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WILL NARROW AS AN UPPER LOW
IN THE W ATLC MOVES SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...THUS ALLOWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE N FROM THE DEEP TROPICS. THE W ATLC
WILL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST THE ATLC WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

$$
WALLACE


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