[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051127
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM TAMMY HAS FORMED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
CENTERED NEAR 28.4N 80.3W OR 17 NM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL AT
05/1130 UTC MOVING NNW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 FOR MORE DETAILS. THIS BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW HAS A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND IS
PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OFF THE NE COAST OF
FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE CLASSIC SATELLITE
SIGNATURE OF A TROPICAL STORM. CONVECTION AND STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE N AND E OF THE CENTER WITH THE AREA S OF GRAND BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND MOST OF S FLORIDA ARE UNDER CLEARING SKIES.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 26.5N-32N
BETWEEN 72W-80W AND FROM 24N-26.5N BETWEEN 72W-75W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROADER AREA S OF 23N
FROM 65W-75W AND N OF 26N E OF 75W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA...
GEORGIA...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 97.3W OR OVER
THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO AT 05/0900 UTC MOVING WSW AT 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 FOR
MORE DETAILS. T.D. STAN CONTINUES SW ACROSS S MEXICO ALTHOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS DISSIPATED AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 35W S
OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED JUST S OF 12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 30W-38W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 8N22W 9N32W THEN ALONG 5N38W 7N55W
8N63W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 300/350 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 30W TO THE COAST
OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE S GULF FROM AN UPPER HIGH
SITUATED NEAR T.D. STAN EXTENDING E ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO CARIBBEAN TO OVER W CUBA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W SW TO 21N94W WITH
N FLOW OVER MOST OF THE W GULF DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR S
OVER THE AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SE UNITED STATES IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT NORTHWARD WITH THE
FORMATION OF T.S. TAMMY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W
BEING GENERATED BY THE FLOW INTO AN THE UPPER LOW IN THE NE
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. STAN IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN N
FLOW AND WITH THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IS
GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM
16N-21N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO OVER CUBA
BETWEEN 77W-84W. AN UPPER HIGH JUST N OF PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA
IS EXTENDING A RIDGE SW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N62W PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF A LINE FROM THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W TO HAITI NEAR 18N73W. AN INDUCED UPPER
TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE ABOVE RIDGES OVER E PANAMA N TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE S CARIBBEAN RATHER CLOUD/SHOWER
FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS THE PROMINENT WEATHER MAKER THIS
MORNING. AFTER TRACKING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS FORMED AND
DEVELOPED TAMMY. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH
N OF PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N68W N TO BEYOND 32N70W. THIS
IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. TAMMY
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC N OF 15N FROM 35W-63W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR
23N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 40W-54W. A SURFACE TROUGH AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N48W ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO 14N63W. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING E ALONG THE N
PERIPHERY OF THE REGION IS SLOWLY DIPPING S INTO THE AREA ALONG
32N32W W TO 30N54W. THIS BOUNDARY IS ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE 1014
MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
NEAR 23N44W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
16N28W NNE TO BEYOND 32N22W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF THE
E ATLC AND THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE
FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N61W 15N53W 18N44W 27N30W. FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST OF
THE E ATLC FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 19W-40W.

$$
WALLACE



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