[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM STAN WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
05/0300 UTC. T.D. STAN IS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 96.8W OR OVER THE
STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO AT 05/0300 UTC MOVING SW AT 3 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 FOR
MORE DETAILS. T.D. STAN MADE LANDFALL YESTERDAY OVER S MEXICO SE
OF VERACRUZ BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW GULF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO AS STAN TRACKS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW GULF S
OF A LINE FROM THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N98W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W COURTESY OF T.D. STAN.

A 1006 MB LOW IS ANALYZED JUST N OF ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 26N79W
MOVING NNW ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION BUT IS ALREADY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE NE
COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25.5N-29N BETWEEN
75W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROADER AREA N
OF 24N W OF 71W TO INLAND OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 34W S
OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED JUST S OF 12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 27W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
32W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION  AND IS
NO LONGER IN THE ATLANTIC REGION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 9N27W 9N40W 13N54W 11N63W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
MOVING OFF AFRICA WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N19W TO THE
COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 55W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE S GULF S OF 21N WITH AN UPPER
HIGH SITUATED NEAR T.D. STAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE E ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR JAMAICA. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86W WSW TO 22N96W WITH NE
FLOW IN THE NW GULF DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE AREA.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NW ATLC COVERS THE SE UNITED STATES
E TO NE FLOW EXCEPT IN THE REGION OF T.D. STAN. SHOWERS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES...ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. STAN IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN
MOSTLY N FLOW AND WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA W OF
77W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER HIGH JUST N OF
PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA IS EXTENDING A RIDGE SW OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 13N65W PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N TO OVER THE N LEEWARD/VIRGIN
ISLANDS BETWEEN 62W-65.5W. AN INDUCED UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN
THE ABOVE RIDGES OVER COLOMBIA N TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-77W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE S CARIBBEAN RATHER CLOUD/SHOWER FREE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COMPLEX...MULTILAYERED SYSTEM COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF SE ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH N OF PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA NEAR
20N68W NNW TO BEYOND 32N74W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
N OF 16N FROM 40W-60W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR 26N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 40W-53W. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING
E JUST N OF THE REGION IS SLOWLY DIPPING S INTO THE AREA ALONG
32N32W W ALONG 31N37W TO 31N48W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N63W TO 33N69W. THIS BOUNDARY IS
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
45/60 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY E OF 54W. A SURFACE 1012 MB LOW
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
23N43W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 70 TO 90 KT WINDS IS AT
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH W OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N26W NNE TO BEYOND 32N20W. DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF THE E ATLC AND THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 21N40W TO BEYOND
32N22W.

$$
WALLACE


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net