[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 050231
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
STAN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CENTER IS ALREADY WELL INLAND OVER THE
STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. SOME MODELS BRING STAN TO THE PACIFIC WHERE
REGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OTHER MODELS
BRING A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY BUT
THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM WHICH IS STILL PRODUCING 25 TO 30-KNOT WINDS
OVER WATER ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0300Z 17.3N  96.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N  97.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 16.5N  97.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED


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