[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040610 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION ROUTINE DELAYED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005

...ROUTINE DELAYED FOR SPECIAL ADVISORY...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM STAN IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 94.1W OR ABOUT 125 NM
ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT 04/0600 UTC UNDER UPDATE ADVISORY
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCUAT/WTNT61 KNHC. T.S. STAN IS MOVING W AT
6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
FOR MORE DETAILS. T.S. STAN IS INTENSIFYING ACCORDING WITH THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA. T.S. STAN HAS COLD CLOUD TOPS
AND NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER, BUT STILL LACKS
BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 45 NM RADIUS OF 19.5N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA S OF
22N FROM THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER MEXICO.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS.

AREA OF CONCERN IN THE BAHAMAS CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH A SURFACE 1007 MB LOW AND TROUGH AT 04/0300 UTC.
THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N78W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO
THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N76W INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 19N76W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN 36
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS WITH THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY E OF THE
TROUGH/LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 24N68W-27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM E OF
THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N68W TO 31N76W INCLUDING MOST OF THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
27W/28W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED JUST S OF 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 24W-30W.

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N41W DRIFTING W. LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS CLEARLY DEFINED BUT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WELL
TO THE NE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE
24N40W-25N35W.

CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W S OF 18N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED UNDER THE UPPER HIGH FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S.
STAN FULLY MASKING ANY SIGNATURE CURVATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN...
BUT IS WELL DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO T.S. STAN AND NOT TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ITSELF.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N32W 13N48W 10N63W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF
AFRICA WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND S SIERRA
LEONE AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 50W-60W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 17W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER TONIGHT IN THE GULF IS T.S. STAN AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF
EXCEPT IN THE NE GULF WHERE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM OVER S GEORGIA INTO THE GULF ALONG 31N84W TO 27N92W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED NEAR STAN EXTENDS A RIDGE E INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND TO THE W ATLC AND A SECOND UPPER HIGH OVER N
MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE N OVER TEXAS WITH NE FLOW IN THE NW GULF
DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THAT AREA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
FROM THE ATLC COVERS THE SE UNITED STATES AND THE FAR N GULF
GIVING MAJORITY OF THE GULF EASTERLY FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. STAN IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN N
TO NE FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA W OF 72W. AN UPPER HIGH JUST N OF PUERTO RICO IS
EXTENDING A RIDGE SW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 14N64W AND IS
GIVING THE NE CARIBBEAN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION N OF 14N E OF 68W TO OVER PUERTO RICO TO OVER LEEWARD
ISLANDS. AN INDUCED UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE ABOVE RIDGES
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE ABC ISLANDS
REDUCING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. STAN EXTENDS TO THE W ATLC
W OF 78W. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS IS IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES. TO THE E OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS AN UPPER
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N66W NNW TO BEYOND 32N69W. THIS IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS.
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E
ATLC N OF 16N FROM 37W-60W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW NEAR
26N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N42W THROUGH A 1010 MB
LOW NEAR 22N41W NE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N35W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N25W N TO
BEYOND 32N24W. BROAD AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
FROM 11N-30N BETWEEN 26W-52W.

$$
WALLACE


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