[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011908 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

CORRECTED FOR 01/1800 T.D. TWENTY POSITION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AT 01/1500 UTC...FROM THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE LAST FIVE DAYS. THE
CENTER OF T.D. TWENTY AT 01/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.3N 85.8W OR
ABOUT 110 NM/205 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO...AND ABOUT
95 NM/175 KM SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. T.D. TWENTY IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 5 KT THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE
HONDURAS COAST TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N72W 19N80W 21N85W...UNDER
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE
CENTER HAS IMPROVED AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
ALSO HAS IMPROVED. THE FUTURE OF THIS DEPRESSION ACCORDING TO
THIS MODEL HAS IT REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT
24 HOURS...AND RE-EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO... AND POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN AT 01/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 14.1N 33.8W OR ABOUT 580 NM/1070 KM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 32.5W AND
35W...AND ANOTHER CELL WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 14N33W. THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER
A FEW DAYS WITH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE
POSSESSES AT LEAST SOME SENSE OF CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FOUND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT EASY TO SPOT AS IT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY...AND UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE TOPS OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 12N15W 11N19W...10N23W 12N30W...11N37W 11N50W 11N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM
2N TO 5N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
FROM 2N TO 16N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FROM 9N TO 11.5N BETWEEN
41W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW CENTER THAT JUST WILL NOT QUIT CONTINUES AS A 1010 MB
FEATURE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...NOW NEAR 24.5N 95W...POSSIBLY
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO. THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT
IS NOT MUCH AT ALL...IF ANY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME WINDS...
MAYBE 15 TO 20 KT...WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW. THE FRONT FROM
24 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED FROM THE GULF WATERS. ONLY A SMALL
PART OF THIS FRONT REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 31N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER IN THE
EASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS FLORIDA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM A 31N73W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS EAST OF 90W...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ON TOP OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINETEEN BUILDS THE RIDGE MORE AND MORE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. BROAD AND NOT-ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF 90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR NOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 87W...AND
EVERYWHERE WEST OF 87W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND OVER CUBA...THANKS TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF
70W. THE SAME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 21N61W...AND THIS TROUGH GOES
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N66W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO
20N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N
TO 27N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST FRONT WHICH HAD MADE ITS WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
24 HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED ALONG ITS EARLIER SOUTHERN EXTREME.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NOW IS NEAR 31N73W...
SENDING CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA AND MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTH OF 32N WEST OF 68W.
THE SAME 21N61W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND
ACCOMPANYING TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HOLDS
FIRMLY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 20N
TO 27N BETWEEN 59W AND 66W. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR 26N31W HAVING
SHIFTED NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC FLOW
IS SEEN FROM 21N TO 34N BETWEEN 19W AND 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE 21N61W UPPER LOW AND THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 26N31W.

$$
MT


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