[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT44 KNHC 010837
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005

LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WAS
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. MOST OF THE`CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH QUITE STRONG...IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN SUCH A
SHEARED PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF THE SHEAR
RELAXES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THEREAFTER...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PREVENTING FURTHER
STRENGTHENING.

THE PRESENT RELOCATION USING THE MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT REFLECT A
NORTHWARD MOTION...IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
WEST FASTER...CONSEQUENTLY THEY BRING THE DEPRESSION FATHER WEST.
HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACK
ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0900Z 13.3N  34.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 14.0N  34.4W    30 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N  35.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 16.0N  35.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 17.5N  36.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 21.6N  37.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 25.0N  37.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N  37.0W    40 KT


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