[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
BROAD 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WHICH IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE HONDURAS COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN. CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAINS
RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 8N14W 7N31W 8N38W 9N48W 9N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEING
SHEARED BY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN
33W AND 36W...WITH SHEARED CLOUD TOPS ALSO.


...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO WHICH WAS
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME FLATTER AND LESS WELL PRONOUNCED
ALONG ITS SOUTHERN END. IT CONTINUES TO BE MORE WELL-DEFINED
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A. THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREA OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N93W 30N86W BEYOND 32N80W.
TYPICAL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS RELATED TO COLD AIR OVER THE WARM
WATERS COVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...JUST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE STRAIT OF
FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA. CLEAR SKIES ARE
FOUND NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...NORTH OF 29N.
BROKEN/OVERCAST SHOWERS ARE SOUTHEAST OF 26N82W 22N87W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BLOWS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS RIDGE PASSES OVER CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N69W BEYOND BERMUDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA ARE RELATED TO THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TWENTY
SEVEN. THIS REMNANT CENTER IS JUST NORTH OF THE HONDURAS COAST
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY. HEAVY RAINS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
BELIZE...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER NEAR 24N55W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 15N61W TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA AND THE OPEN CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTH OF 8N EAST OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N81W...AND THEN INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE EASILY POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND IN FLORIDA.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW BLOWS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS RIDGE PASSES OVER CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N69W BEYOND BERMUDA.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
CENTER NEAR 24N54W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N61W TO
NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 60W...NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
THE 24N54W LOW CENTER TO 60W...AND SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF 20N52W
8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 39W AND THE
DRY AIR BOUNDARY WEST OF 27N49W 20N52W 8N58W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 24N54W-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
THE RIDGE IS ALONG 3N46W 13N43W BEYOND 32N48W. THE PRECIPITATION
UNDER THIS RIDGE IS INCLUDED IN THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 39W AND THE DRY AIR BOUNDARY FROM 10N TO
30N. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE MOROCCO LOW
CENTER FROM 24 HOURS AGO...NOW ALONG 14N14W TO 25N23W BEYOND
32N23W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC COLD FRONT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...PASSING THROUGH 33N20W TO 31N30W TO 32N41W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO 30N24W 30N32W BEYOND 31N41W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS CLOUDINESS.

$$
GR/MT




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