[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180014
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1005 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W MOVING
INLAND TO THE NNW.  FURTHER N...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
18N84W MOVING NW.  THE TWO SYSTEMS COMBINED ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N-22N
BETWEEN 80W-88W.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT FROM EITHER SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MEANWHILE...HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PARTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 8N40W 9N50W 9N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 23W-26W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N
BETWEEN 30W-34W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
39W-42W...AND FROM 7N-8N BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 27N80W 21N90W 18N94W.  A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES OVER S MEXICO ALONG 17N97W 20N99W 24N100W.  OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONTS...S OF 28N.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 22N WEST
OF 92W.  TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA HAVE FALLEN ABOUT 20 DEGREES
SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE N GULF. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR IS NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...N OF 25N.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE SE GULF DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN.  CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE IS THE ONLY
CONVECTION NOTED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
80W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N83W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W.  A TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W.  EXPECT...
CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION W OF
80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR
32N75W TO THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 50W FROM 14N NORTHWARD
TO 31N.  UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 66W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
RUNS FROM A CENTRAL ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 26N51W TO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
FURTHER E ALONG 40W FROM 10N TO 26N.   A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER MOROCCO NEAR 30N8W. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IS WITHIN ABOUT 300 TO 400 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THIS CIRCULATION.

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net