[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 65.3W AT
15/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 230 NM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW
AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION LIES ON THE
EXTREME NW EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS SE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM 11.5N-13N BETWEEN
62.5W-64.5W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 11N62W-15N64.5W.
WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND CONTINUED STRONG CONVECTION...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WINDWARD/S MOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW/MID CURVATURE S OF 13N IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN THE ITCZ.

W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 16N DRIFTING
WESTWARD. WAVE HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT AND IS
BENEATH UPPER LEVEL E/W RIDGE. LOW/MID LEVEL CURVATURE IS
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM S COVER THE S CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N25W 9N24W 7N45W 5N57W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 16W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF...EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA SW TO 25N92W OVER THE W GULF. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH IS STILL MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.
WHICH HAS PLACED SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF. AN UPPER HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 24N82W WITH THE STRONGEST
SUBSIDENCE LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF S OF 28N E OF 88W. A WEAK
N/S CONVERGENCE LINE HAS SET UP OVER THE W GULF FROM 25N93W TO
29N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITHIN 60
NM OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS OVER THE E GULF. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE EVENING/WED MORNING MOVING
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC BY THU WITH STRONG WINDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
DRIER AIR OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE BEST WEATHER OVER THE
REGION EXTENDS FROM HAITI W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S TO
17N. FARTHER S...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W AND A 1006 MB LOW
NEAR 11N77W ARE INTERACTING WITH DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N W OF
72W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA. OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST...HOWEVER...IS T.D. 27 OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR AND A STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE S LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

ATLANTIC...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NE OF BERMUDA AND IS PRODUCING
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE W ATLC. EXTENSIVE DRY
AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS W OF 50W AND THE SHALLOW
INVERSION IS PRODUCING A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD OVER THE
SAME AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N50W 22N58W WITH A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH 50 TO 70 KT WINDS AT 250 MB...EXTENDING
ALONG 18N65W 22N46W 15N35W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS COLLOCATED
WITH THE JET...AND ALSO EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W 25N52W TO 22N60W
THEN DISSIPATES TO N OF HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 350 NM OF LINE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 15N61W 20N51W THEN N TO BEYOND 32N43W. LARGE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS NOW FROM
OVER SPAIN/PORTUGAL SW ALONG 32N19W THEN S TO 15N30W. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 16N-25N
BETWEEN 19W-35W...WHILE WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE TROUGH N OF 25N. THIS SAME TROUGH IS SHEARING
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 35W AND FORCING THE SAME SUBTROPICAL JET
SOUTHWARD WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 90 TO 110 KT FROM 15N35W TO
OVER AFRICA NEAR 19N16W.

$$
WALLACE


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