[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALONG 58W/59W
S OF 19N MOVING W 5 KT.  A 1007 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N58W.  THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING GRADUAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS WAVE...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS
BEING HAMPERED BY MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WLY SHEAR.  THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL
FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 52W-59W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 17N MOVING W
10 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WLY
SHEAR.  NO WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS IS FOUND.  EXTRAPOLATION IS
USED TO PLACE THE WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
73W-76W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 69W-72W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 6N40W 9N50W 13N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 14W-18W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN
86W-93W.  WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE SE AT 15 KT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF
NEAR 24N86W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NNE FROM THE CENTER TO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF.  EXPECT CONTINUED GOOD WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE CONVECTION
OVER INLAND LOUISIANA SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS
DISSIPATED.  LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS PERSISTS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN.  AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING MORE
CONVECTION TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY.  ANOTHER TROPICAL WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED INLAND OVER
N VENEZUELA NEAR 8N70W WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WLY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE DELAWARE COAST NEAR 38N71W.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG
32N50W 27N54W 23N60W 20N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE FRONT.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 80W.  A PREFRONTAL FRONT EXTENDS FROM
29N50W 25N51W 21N55W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH.  A 1041 MB HIGH IS WELL N OF THE
AREA AT 48N26W.  ELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE SUBTROPICS
ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 10W-40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLC.... SWINGING PAST
BERMUDA INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  MID/UPPER RIDGING IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 43W-58W WITH PLENTY OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  THIS RIDGING IS HAMPERING THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS NEAR 20N30W.  ISOLATED COLD-AIR INSTABILITY TSTMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE CENTER.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER N
NEAR 28N30W.  AN 80-100 KT JETSTREAM WITH WLY WINDS IS FURTHER S
BETWEEN 5N-15N....W OF 43W TO W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA



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