[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ALONG 58W S OF
19N MOVING W 5-10 KT.  A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
12N58W.  THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS SUGGESTING GRADUAL TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS WAVE...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING
HAMPERED BY MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WLY SHEAR.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL FORMATION OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 54W-59W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 51W-55W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 17N MOVING
W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS LOCATED BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
SHEAR.  NO WELL-DEFINED WAVE AXIS IS FOUND.  EXTRAPOLATION IS
USED TO PLACE THE WAVE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN
70W-74W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 71W-74W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N20W 5N30W 5N40W 10N50W
12N60W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 21W-23W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN
86W-93W.  WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE SE AT 15 KT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF
NEAR 24N86W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NNE FROM THE CENTER TO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
GULF.  EXPECT CONTINUED GOOD WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE CONVECTION
OVER INLAND LOUISIANA SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS
DISSIPATED.  ONLY A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING.  LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS PERSISTS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN.  AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING MORE
CONVECTION TO THE SW CARIBBEAN TOMORROW.  ANOTHER TROPICAL WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TOMORROW.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED INLAND OVER
N VENEZUELA NEAR 8N70W WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO STRONG WLY UPPER
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 36N73W.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE W ATLANTIC.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG
32N52W 25N60W 22N70W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT TO 80W.  A PREFRONTAL FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N50W
23N53W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E
OF THE TROUGH.  A 1042 MB HIGH IS WELL N OF THE AREA AT 44N28W.
ELY SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE SUBTROPICS ATLANTIC FROM 20N-30N
BETWEEN 10W-40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLC.... SWINGING PAST BERMUDA INTO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  MID/UPPER RIDGING IS FROM 11N53W TO 32N43W
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC... WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS W OF THE
RIDGE AXIS FROM CIRRUS DEBRIS.  THIS RIDGING IS TRYING TO LESSEN
THE SHEAR ON THE TROPICAL WAVE NEARING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BUT
IT STILL REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG.  STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NEAR 20N30W.  ISOLATED COLD-AIR INSTABILITY TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE CENTER.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER N
NEAR 28N30W.  AN 80-100 KT JETSTREAM WITH WLY WINDS IS FURTHER S
BETWEEN 5N-15N....W OF 50W TO W AFRICA.

$$
FORMOSA


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