[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SWATH OF AFRICAN DUST.
AS SUCH...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS POOR WITH ONLY ISOLATED
CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE ITCZ.  POSITION BASED
PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS TRIGGERING A SMALL AREA WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W S OF 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE IS S OF THE AREA
OVER THE E PACIFIC.  ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N10W 6N40W 8N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ FROM
20W-30W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ALONG ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAR MORE ACTIVE PATTERN HAS UNFOLDED TODAY AS A SHARP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVED FROM MEXICO INTO THE W GLFMEX LAST
NIGHT.  STRONG DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROF IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING
AN EWD MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. MULTIPLE
SQUALL LINES ARE OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
29N86W SWD TO 26N89W TO 25N93W. THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE RAPIDLY EWD DURING THE EVENING HOURS PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SQUALLS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.  FURTHER
E...DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW IS PRODUCING MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER
THE E GLFMEX AND FLORIDA.  AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
WERE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS TODAY OVER FLORIDA AS OPPOSED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS.  DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES SLOWLY EWD
REACHING APPROXIMATELY 90W BY TUE AFTERNOON THEN 88W BY WED
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE E HALF OF THE GLFMEX AND FLORIDA TUE AND WED SETTING THE
STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS.  WHILE
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ESPECIALLY NEAR AND JUST
E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER
FLORIDA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.  AT THE SURFACE...1006 MB
LOW OVER E TEXAS WILL TRACK EWD DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE S UNITED STATES.
MEANWHILE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED
ALONG 24N/25N.

CARIBBEAN...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN JUST W OF JAMAICA WITH A TROF EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NW
VENEZUELA NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL TO W
CARIBBEAN FROM 70W-85W. THIS AIRMASS TENDED TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA TODAY AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION.  FURTHER W...DEEP-LAYERED SLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER
THE GLFMEX IS PRODUCING ENHANCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER S
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. EXPECT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SEWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE IS A SECONDARY SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA E OF 70W. THE PLUME EXTENDS ESSENTIALLY ALL THE
WAY TO W AFRICA SO EXPECT HAZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS AMPLIFIED FROM THE W CARIBBEAN NWD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WITH DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N60W SWD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING INCREASING DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE AND
FAVORING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA.
OVER OPEN WATER...AN OLD REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 23N/24W
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLC.
CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS IS LOCATED
200-500 NM NE OF PUERTO RICO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 60W-66W.
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ALONG THE TROUGH TONIGHT
INTO TUE.  AFTER THAT...MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EWD OVER THE
GLFMEX.  THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA
ON TUE AND WED GENERALLY NW OF A LINE FROM W CUBA TO BERMUDA.
OVER THE E ATLC...BROAD TROUGH REMAINS N OF 10N BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO 50W WITH RIDGING TO THE EAST OVER SW AFRICA.
THE UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAKDOWN DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD ALONG 10N. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PARTIALLY DISRUPT
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  CURRENTLY...MEAN RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES SW TO 25N45W AND
FROM A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N55W TO S
FLORIDA.  S OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL
WITH AN EXPANSIVE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST SPANNING THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S OF 25N TO
THE ITCZ.

$$
RHOME



WWWW
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