[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15
KT. A BROAD CIRCULATION IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ...EMBEDDED WITHIN
A LARGE SWATH OF AFRICAN DUST. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE
ITCZ.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT. THE
WAVE IS TILTED ALONG A LINE FROM ARUBA TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND
IS TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 66W-71W FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 82W/83W S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A N/S ORIENTED CLOUD LINE IS NOTED MOVING
INLAND ACROSS ERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...WITH A CLUSTER OF TSTMS
LOCATED NEAR THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 82W-85W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 7N24W 5N32W 6N38W 4N45W
10N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 14W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
36W-44W NEAR TRPCL WAVE 39W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 150 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 45W-64W...MOST CONCENTRATED W OF 58W ACROSS
TRINIDAD AND NE VENEZUELA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EJECTING EWD OUT OF CNTRL MEXICO
AND TEXAS INTO THE W GULF...WITH DRY NWLY FLOW SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THE ENVIRONMENT E OF THE TROF HAS
BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS BEGAN DEVELOPING ALONG THE N GULF COAST
LATE LAST NIGHT...AND NOW THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
PROPAGATED S AND E OVER OPEN WATER. MULTIPLE SQUALL LINES ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE OUTFLOW...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WITHIN 250 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 21N94W TO
29N86W. THE UPPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO LUMBER ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AND WILL KEEP
THE STAGE SET FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ON AND
OFF THRU THE WEEK. THE MOST PROFOUND MOISTURE POOL IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE W GULF... COINCIDENT WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT
WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROF. THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA TUE AND
WED.

CARIBBEAN...
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED WITH
TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA OVER THE E PAC AND DRY AIR
ALOFT IS SPILLING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN. UPPER MOISTURE IS A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT E OF 70W AS
A TROF DROPS DOWN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND WSW
FLOW INCREASES OUT OF VENEZUELA. HAZY CONDITIONS ARE BEING
OBSERVED ACROSS VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE WIDTH OF THE BASIN AS AN
AFRICAN DUST PLUME MOVES IN FROM THE E...AND THERE IS NO
IMMEDIATE END IN SIGHT WITH THE PLUME EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO W
AFRICA.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS AMPLIFIED FROM THE W CARIBBEAN NWD
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS AND IS BRINGING A FEW MORE CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THAN HAS BEEN OBSERVED LATELY. THE RIDGE
HAS PUSHED A TROF TO THE E FROM 30N60W SW PAST PUERTO RICO...AND
THIS FEATURE IS TRIGGERING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 62W-66W.
DOWNSTREAM...A WEAKENING 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL
ATLC NEAR 27N47W WITH TROF EXTENDING SW TO 22N52W AND SEEMS TO
SERVE AS THE NRN BOUNDARY OF THE AFRICAN DUST SURGE.
HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE ATLC AND
THE LOW/TROF IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A
PROGRESSIVE AND SHARP UPPER TROF IS MOVING EWD ALONG 32N32W
22N43W BUT IS NOT CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. LIKEWISE FOR AN
OPEN TROF WHICH IS SWINGING NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
13N32W 20N34W AND IS INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM 13N-25N E
OF 30W. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST SPANS THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN...GENERALLY S OF
20N TO THE ITCZ.

$$
BERG


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