[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 14N
MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 15-20 KT OR ABOUT 6-7
DEG/DAY.  THE WAVE REMAINS POORLY DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR BARBADOS IS ALONG 60W S OF 18N MOVING W AT AN
ESTIMATED SPEED OF 20-25 KT OR ABOUT 8-9 DEG/DAY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM
9N-12N BETWEEN 56W-61W.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY S OF 12N AFFECTING
TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TONIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS VENEZUELA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 78W S OF 18N
MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 15-20 KT OR ABOUT 7-8 DEG/DAY.
THE WAVE IS WELL NOTED ON THE 5-DAY SATELLITE LOOP.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 88W S OF 16N MOVING
W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10 KT OR ABOUT 4-5 DEG/DAY.  THE WAVE
IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER W
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN
88W-91W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 8N36W 6N45W 10N60W.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-20W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N84W.  WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AT 5-10 KT OVER THE E GULF AND A
BIT STRONGER AT 10-15 OVER THE W GULF.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE MEXICO FROM 24N-26N
BETWEEN 98W-100W.  MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER S TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 95W-98W MOVING E.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS
ALONG 88W.  A BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT
CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A
STATIONARY FRONT PRESENTLY N OF THE GULF AT 32N SHOULD NOT
IMPACT THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES IN THE
CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY AT 15-20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S
NICARAGUA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 83W-86W.  AN AFRICAN DUST SURGE
HAS BROUGHT ABOUT SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH A
REDUCTION IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
DUST IS OVER JAMAICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 74W.  THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING E.  MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...OVER NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND E OF 78W...AND OVER S
AMERICA.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AREAS W
OF THE AFRICAN SURGE.

ATLANTIC...
1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N61W.  A WEAK 1016 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N47W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N51W.  SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 18N AND E OF 42W DUE TO A 1028 MB HIGH S OF THE
AZORES AT 35N26W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED ALONG
72W AND ALONG 52W N OF 20N.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N WITH AXIS ALONG 42W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 8N BETWEEN 20W-38W.  A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 12N15W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER W AFRICA FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-20W.  EXPECT SURFACE
FEATURES NOT TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA



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