[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLANTIC IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 14N
MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 15-20 KT OR ABOUT 6-7
DEG/DAY.  THE WAVE REMAINS POORLY DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROXIMATELY 150 NM E OF BARBADOS IS ALONG 57W S
OF 18N MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 20-25 KT OR ABOUT 8-9
DEG/DAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN THE
ITCZ FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 54W-60W.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY PRIMARILY S OF 12N
AFFECTING TRINIDAD/TOBAGO TONIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS VENEZUELA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 76W S OF 18N
MOVING W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 15-20 KT OR ABOUT 7-8 DEG/DAY.
THE WAVE IS WELL NOTED ON THE 5-DAY SATELLITE LOOP.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS ALONG 87W S OF 16N MOVING
W AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 10 KT OR ABOUT 4-5 DEG/DAY.  THE WAVE
IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IS OVER
W HONDURAS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 87W-90W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N20W 6N40W 8N60W.  CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SW
AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-18W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE E GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W.  WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AT 5-10 KT OVER
THE E GULF AND A BIT STRONGER AT 10-15 OVER THE W GULF.  AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 96W-98W.  MORE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN
97W-102W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W.  A BAND OF MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
GULF W OF 95W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE W GULF FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  A STATIONARY FRONT PRESENTLY N OF THE GULF AT 32N
SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
THE TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURES IN THE
CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  WINDS ARE MOSTLY EASTERLY AT 15-20 KT.
CONVECTION OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA HAS NOW DISSIPATED. AN
AFRICAN DUST SURGE HAS BROUGHT ABOUT SOME DRYING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND A REDUCTION IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.  THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE DUST IS APPROACHING JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 74W.  THE BASE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING E.  MOISTURE IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...OVER NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND E OF
78W...AND OVER S AMERICA.  SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.  EXPECT LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR AREAS W OF THE AFRICAN SURGE.

ATLANTIC...
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N63W.  A WEAK 1017 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N47W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 25N50W 23N60W.  SURFACE RIDGING IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 18N AND E OF 42W DUE TO A 1030 MB HIGH
OVER THE AZORES AT 37N26W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL WLY FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITH TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
ALONG 72W AND ALONG 52W N OF 20N.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N WITH AXIS ALONG 42W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 8N BETWEEN 20W-38W.  A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS OVER W AFRICA NEAR 12N15W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER W AFRICA FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-20W.  EXPECT SURFACE
FEATURES NOT TO CHANGE MUCH IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA


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