[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU 26 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W/24W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST N OF THE ITCZ IS OBSERVED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 170 NM SE OF BARBADOS IS CURVED
ALONG 5N59W 11N57W 15N55W MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WELL-DEFINED
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF
10N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE AXIS.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W/75W S OF 15N MOVING W
5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...AND IS RESPONDING BY MOVING QUITE SLOWLY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION IS POOR AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 11N24W 8N36W 8N45W 6N50W
8N56W...THE AXIS THEN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 57W WITH SE FLOW PENETRATING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75
NM OF 4N FROM 22W-35W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
36W-47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
100 NM OF LINE FROM 6N32W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
2N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND NW ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM A LARGE
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SW THROUGH 32N78W ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N85W TO THE W GULF
NEAR 24N94W. THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MAINLY DRY AIR IN THE UPPER
LEVELS SE OVER THE GULF AND NW ATLC...BUT THIS FLOW IS ALSO
PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E GULF.
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT EXTENDING OVER BERMUDA ALONG 28N71W
ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST
NEAR 26N80W TO A SECOND 1009 MB LOW IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N85W
THEN COMING UP STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER SW LOUISIANA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 29N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE REMAINDER
OF THE FRONT TO THE LOUISIANA COAST. LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH THIS MORNING...SO SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER
THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW
OVER JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. A WEAK 1012
MB HIGH IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N83W. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT
ALL LEVELS...SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...NW CARIBBEAN...AND CUBA TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE LOCALIZED RAIN MAY CAUSE AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THIS MORNING. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IS CENTERED E OF LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N57W WITH A BROAD FLOW
COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N FROM 45W-87W. IN THE SHORT TERM...
MORE CONSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
WILL STRENGTHEN BY FRI...BRINGING MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER TO
THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH
ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N57W WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING NNE TO BEYOND 32N52W AND COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM
47W-65W. A SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 70 KT EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO 30N58W AND IS PARTIALLY PHASING WITH THE
POLAR JET JUST N OF THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF
NEW ENGLAND COAST. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 60W-72W ALONG A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG 32N20W TO 29N31W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 27N36W 22N46W 18N58W TO 12N62W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF 20N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A CUT-OFF
LOW IS FORMING JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS DRAGGING
HIGH CLOUDS N ALONG THE SENEGAL/MAURITANIA COAST.

$$
WALLACE



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