[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU 26 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W S OF 14N MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST N OF THE ITCZ ABOUT IS OBSERVED
ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-
TO 24W.

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 270 NM SE OF BARBADOS IS CURVED
ALONG 4N57W 10N56W 15N53W MOVING W 10 KT. A WELL-DEFINED
INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF
10N. ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS S OF 13N.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W S OF 15N MOVING W 5-10
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...AND IS RESPONDING BY MOVING QUITE SLOWLY. CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION IS POOR AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
CONTINUITY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S
OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N22W 10N35W 8N47W 11N53W.
THE AXIS IS ILL-DEFINED W OF THE TRPCL WAVE NEAR 56W WITH SE
FLOW PENETRATING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 6N FROM 10W-15W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 36W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF 4N FROM 25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM A LARGE
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SW THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE TROUGH
IS ADVECTING MAINLY DRY AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS SE OVER THE
AREA...BUT THIS FLOW IS ALSO PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA TO A SECOND 1008 MB
LOW NEAR 28N85W THEN COMING UP STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER SE
LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
OVER LOUISIANA IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST. LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH TONIGHT...SO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY...ONLY PATCHY LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NE GULF. ELSEWHERE...SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN...
THE LOW THAT HAD PERSISTED IN THE W CARIBBEAN HAS FINALLY
DISSIPATED LEAVING A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE JUST E OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N75W TO 14N80W.
ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS LIMITED TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. A WEAK 1011 MB HIGH IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA NEAR
21N81W. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS...SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES WHERE LOCALIZED RAIN MAY CAUSE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED E OF LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N59W WITH A BROAD FLOW
COVERING THE AREA S OF 22N FROM 42W-88W. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG THE W TIP OF THE
RIDGE HAS INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINS OVER CNTRL AMERICA TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA S TO N NICARAGUA AND SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION INLAND ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. IN THE
SHORT TERM...MORE CONSISTENT EASTERLY TRADE FLOW HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WILL STRENGTHEN BY FRI...BRINGING MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL WEATHER TO THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW
JUST OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS NEAR
26N77W THEN INLAND OVER FLORIDA TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45
NM ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO THE FLORIDA COAST.
FARTHER E...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED TO AN UPPER HIGH IN
THE W TRPCL ATLC NEAR 17N59W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING NNE TO
BEYOND 32N51W AND COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 43W-70W. A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS TO 90 KT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NE TO 29N58W AND PARTIALLY PHASING WITH THE POLAR JET
JUST N OF THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 60W-63W ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE.
FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH
ALONG 32N25W 27N40W TO BEYOND 32N47W. A SWATH OF HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXTENDS S OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TO 20N BETWEEN
26W-50W WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A CUT-OFF LOW IS FORMING OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
AND IS DRAGGING HIGH CLOUDS N ALONG THE SENEGAL/MAURITANIA
COAST.

$$
WALLACE


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