[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE 24 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. SIGNATURE IS
POOR AND PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY AN ADVANCING AFRICAN DUST SURGE.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
POOR...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE
AXIS TO 64W INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N30W 5N37W 6N54W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA AND
SIERRA LEONE FROM 6N-11N E OF 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 18W-21W. CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 18W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF FROM NW
FLORIDA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. VERY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT
IS ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 88W. DEEP-LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF FROM OVER THE S
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROUGH IS STRETCHING SLOWLY E AS STRONG
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD N OVER THE W ATLC FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN. THE LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NE UNITED
STATES AND W ATLC IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY S PUSHING A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE SE UNITED STATES OFF THE N GULF COAST LATER
THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR MARGINAL WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BEING EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
MAINLY OVER THE NE GULF INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY. FRONT
WILL WEAKEN WED AS IT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. THEREAFTER...UPPER
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA WITH WHAT REMAINS
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING E/W FROM 38W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
90W. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS N LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER S HISPANIOLA TO A
1010 MB LOW SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W CONTINUING TO CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR N NICARAGUA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE BOUNDARY E OF 70W AND FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 73W-80W. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT N
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING ENHANCED SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN MAINLY N
OF 15N. ELSEWHERE... SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN
60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED
NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO MOVING WESTWARD OVER COLOMBIA.

ATLANTIC...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THIS MORNING REMAINS THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WITH DEEPENING 999 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N43W AND A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SW ALONG
22N50W TO OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 500 NM E
OF THE LOW/TROUGH N OF 22N. INCREASE DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM 45W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING FORCED BY A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 42W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
RESULTING IN GALE CONDITIONS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE LATER TODAY BUT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE S AND E OF THE TRAILING TROUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. OVER THE W ATLC...BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE AREA
IS PRODUCING CONFLUENCE AND DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT W OF
45W. IN THE FAR E ATLC...A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N22W S INTO THE THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N34W WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE S AND E SUPPORTING ENHANCED ITCZ
ACTIVITY E OF 40W. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND E ATLC WITHIN 350 NM OF LINE FROM 24N19W ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 15N30W TO 13N42W.

$$
WALLACE



WWWW
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