[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE 24 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 44W/45W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15
KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE. SIGNATURE
IS POOR AND PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY AN ADVANCING AFRICAN DUST
SURGE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT.
WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE
POOR...SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE AXIS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N23W 6N29W 2N41W 1N51W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA
AND SIERRA LEONE FROM 7N-10N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 21W-28W AND
WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL FROM 12N-14N. CLUSTERS
OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
15W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A PERSISTENT SHARP UPPER TROUGH BISECTS THE GULF FROM NW FLORIDA
SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR MEXICO CITY. VERY DRY/STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 90W. DEEP-LAYERED TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE SE GULF FROM
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE A BIG
PLAYER IN THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EVALUATION OF
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROUGH IS INCHING SLOWLY NE AS
STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD N FROM THE W CARIBBEAN. THE
LARGE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NE UNITED STATES AND W ATLC
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY S PUSHING A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE
SE UNITED STATES OFF THE N GULF COAST LATER THIS MORNING. UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS APPEAR MARGINAL WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY OVER THE NE
GULF INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY. FRONT WILL WEAKEN WED AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. THEREAFTER...UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER S FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN...
WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING E/W FROM 43W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO
90W. AT THE SURFACE...TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS N LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER HISPANIOLA TO A
1009 MB LOW S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W CONTINUING TO CENTRAL
AMERICA NEAR THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOUNDARY E OF
THE LOW. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT N DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING ENHANCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 15N. ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE
E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING SPREADING E
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS BEING
GENERATED OVER NW VENEZUELA AND E COLOMBIA MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF VENEZUELA. ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN APPEARS TO BE
RELATED TO UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER JET
EXTENDING AROUND THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NE INTO THE W ATLC. THE UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO BE
AMPLIFIED WED AND THU AS UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE GULF DIGS S.

ATLANTIC...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER THIS MORNING REMAINS THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...WITH DEEPENING 1002 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 28N45W AND A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING S ALONG
23N53W TO OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 400 NM E
OF THE LOW/TROUGH E OF 45W. INCREASE DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE TROUGH
FROM 45W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS BEING FORCED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 47W
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY RESULTING IN GALE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING TO THE E AND SE OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE LATER TODAY BUT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE S AND E OF THE TRAILING
TROUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. OVER THE W ATLC...BROAD
MID/UPPER TROUGH WELL N OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING CONFLUENCE AND
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT W OF 47W. IN THE FAR E ATLC...A
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W S INTO THE
THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N35W WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE S AND
E SUPPORTING ENHANCED ITCZ ACTIVITY E OF 35W. AFRICAN DUST
CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC WITHIN 175/250
NM OF LINE FROM 19N22W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 11N37W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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