[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 210625
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT 21 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 15N...JUST WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W.
OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 21W
AND 26W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 45W/46W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N
BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 73W/74W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W FROM THE
23N67W 20N70W 19N80W 15N84W SURFACE TROUGH...AND SOUTH OF 15N
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS FROM
9N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ 10N15W 8N25W...7N28W 4N35W 4N44W...5N47W 3N55W.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE TROPICAL
WAVES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 10N60W 8N56W 8N47W 8N39W 8N28W 10N26W 10N14W AT THE COAST
OF AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1013 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N94W. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS IN THE GULF WATERS. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 79W AND 92W...FROM GEORGIA
TO EASTERN LOUISIANA. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF
27N80W 23N86W 22N90W 19N93W. LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA...IN THE AREA
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA. LARGE SCALE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
WATERS WEST OF 90W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...FROM
A TROUGH WHICH RUNS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA/EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CARRYING
MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM MEXICO TO COSTA
RICA/PANAMA. IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER AREAS THAT RECENTLY HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WAKE OF ADRIAN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES OVER PARTS OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME CELLS
JUST SOUTH OF THE EASTERN PART OF CUBA FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN
75W AND 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 23N67W TO 20N70W...SKIRTING THE
COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W TO 19N80W AND EASTERN HONDURAS
NEAR 15N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W
AND 79W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W...CURVING TOWARD
27N48W...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH RUNS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 32N43W TO 29N42W TO 26N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THIS AREA FROM AN ATLANTIC 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR
32N43W TO 25N45W TO 21N52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN
30W AND 43W.

$$
MT

WWWW
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