[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI 20 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS S
OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT.  IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ALONG THE ITCZ WITH SOME WEAK CURVATURE.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS ALONG 43W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  POSITION IS
BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AS WELL AS A NORTHWARD KINK
IN THE ITCZ.  THE WAVE IS NOT ESPECIALLY WELL-DEFINED.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS AND VENEZUELA ALONG
71W/72W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
LEVEL TURNING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  IN ADDITION SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW
VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 67W-75W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 7N24W 4N30W 4N43W 2N50W.
CONVECTION IS GREATLY ENHANCED FROM LAST WEEK.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 8W-15W.  IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION WITH THE
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-7N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N94W.
FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE LINE OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 93W-97W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE FAR SE GULF.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS A
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES EXCEPT FOR THE SE GULF.  EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP S FROM GEORGIA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT CONVECTION.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WILL HAVE LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW.

CARIBBEAN AND W ATLC. ...
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA COURTESY OF THE REMNANTS OF ADRIAN.  MOISTURE
FROM THE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS SURGING NE OUT
AHEAD OF ADRIAN PRODUCING OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 15N W OF HAITI.  IN ADDITION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 67W-71W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 83W-86W.
EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO E HONDURAS
WITH ASSOCIATED RAIN IN 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 23N67W DRIFTING
WESTWARD ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS TO
31N57W.  THERE IS NO  CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW.  A 1007 MB GALE
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STORM NEAR 32N44W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 40W-44W.
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N29W.  HIGH
PRESSURE IS N OF 15N AND E OF 40W.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
ANOTHER SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST EXITING W OF MAURITANIA WITH DUST
PRESENT BETWEEN 9N-23N E OF 40W.  LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N43W.  AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S TO
5N35W.

$$
FORMOSA


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