[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 18 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 12N MOVING AT 15
KT.  WEAK CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MAINLY
LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ AND IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TRACKING THROUGH GUYANA ALONG THE SOUTH
AMERICAN COAST ALONG 58W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 55W-60W.
THIS WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AFRICAN DUST
SURGE.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS POSITIONED ALONG 77W S OF 12N
MOVING W AT 10 KT.  THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE
IT IS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 8N20W 5N40W 4N50W 5N57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 20W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES
WITH NO CONVECTION.  WINDS ARE LIGHT AT 10 KT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE ERN PART OF THE GULF. EXPECT MORE OR LESS THE
SAME WEATHER OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR THE TURKS/CAICOS TO A
1008 MB LOW APPROXIMATELY 150 NM S OF JAMAICA.  A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ALONG 77W IS HELPING TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER N
COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 68W-77W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE SW N
ATLC.  THIS SETUP IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 65W-80W. SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
61W-70W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER
AMPLIFIED BY AN TROUGH MOVING OVER MEXICO AS WELL AS MOISTURE
FROM T.S. ADRIAN MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  BOTTOM LINE...AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N45W.  A TROUGH
EXTENDS SW TO 20N50W 18N57W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 40W-45W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO.  THE OTHER MAIN FEATURE
IN THE ATLANTIC IS THE LARGE SURGE OF DUST THAT CONTINUES TO
PUSH TO THE WEST WITH LEADING EDGE ALONG 58W FROM THE ITCZ NWD
TO 20N.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DUST CONCENTRATIONS ARE
SLOWLY DECREASING.

$$
FORMOSA


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