[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Wed May 18 13:10:36 CDT 2005


AXNT20 KNHC 181810 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED 18 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ERN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE PROPAGATING WWD ALONG 26W AT 15 KT.
WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ AND IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.

TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING THROUGH SURINAME ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN
COAST ALONG 57W AND MOVING W AT 15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE WAVE INTO THE COAST
FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 57W-61W.  THIS WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN AFRICAN DUST SURGE.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE POSITIONED ALONG 75W PROPAGATING
TO THE W AT 10 KT.  THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE IT IS
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND NWD TO THE BAHAMAS.  THEREFORE THE POSITION WAS
FOUND USING EXTRAPOLATION.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 7N26W 5N39W 5N56W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM EITHER OF ITCZ AXIS
FROM 20-35W.  FURTHER W...THE NEXT AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST INCLUDING BRAZIL AND FRENCH
GUIANA FROM THE EQUATOR NWD TO 5N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PUSH THROUGH THE ERN PART OF THE GULF.  MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATED AS THE
TROUGH FLATTENS AHEAD OF A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH PUSHING
SOUTHWARD OVER MEXICO.  MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SECOND TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE TO PUSH FURTHER NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE FAR SE GULF AND S FLORIDA BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE CUTS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE

CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC...
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR THE TURKS/CAICOS TO A
1008 MB LOW APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SW OF JAMAICA.  A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ALONG 74W IS GENERATING COPIOUS MOISTURE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WHICH IS SURGING NWD INTO THE ATLC WATERS.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...BROAD DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE SW N
ATLC.  THIS SETUP IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-19N
BETWEEN 65W-75W. SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
65W-75W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE FURTHER
AMPLIFIED BY AN TROUGH MOVING OVER MEXICO AS WELL AS MOISTURE
FROM T.S. ADRIAN MOVING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  BOTTOM LINE...AN
UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT 23N47W.
A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD OFF OF THE LOW IS HELPING TO
MAINTAIN A BAND OF SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE
EAST FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 37W-46W.  THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO.  THE OTHER
MAIN FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC IS THE LARGE SURGE OF DUST THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE WEST WITH LEADING EDGE ALONG 55W FROM
THE ITCZ NWD TO 20N.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DUST
CONCENTRATIONS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING.

$$
HALBACH/RHOME




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