[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 170523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE 17 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W/48W S OF 11N MOVING W 15
KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOSTLY WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. THE WAVE IS
PRECEDING A SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W/70W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WAVE IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND DENSE CLOUD
COVER...SO ITS SIGNATURE IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE WAVE
IS MOVED BASED ON CONTINUITY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 63W-68W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL BRING FLASH FLOODS AND
POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES TO THE ISLANDS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 9N24W 4N33W 7N46W...THEN
ALONG 6N50W 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-8N E OF 40W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W GULF
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESTING ALONG
THE W COAST OF MEXICO. THIS DEVELOPED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE TEXAS AND NE MEXICAN COAST EARLIER WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE W GULF N OF 20N W OF 95W. ELSEWHERE...
WEAK 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N90W WITH
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW
TO 26N95W. THIS BOUNDARY HAS THE POTENTIAL OF SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW/TROUGH.

W GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...AND W ATLANTIC...
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND
CAICOS SW OVER E CUBA TO A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E
JAMAICA NEAR 18N76W THEN TRAILING S TO A 1006 MB LOW IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W TO 12N82W. THE 1007 MB LOW CONTINUES TO
DRIFT NE TOWARDS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI WHILE THE 1006 MB
LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST. NEITHER LOW HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
ALTHOUGH THE N LOW IS GENERATING A SMALL AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE E MOVING TOWARDS S HAITI. A SURFACE RIDGE IN
THE W ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N59W
WSW TO THE E COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SUPPORTING DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER HIGH LOCATED NEAR 15N70W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING
THE AREA S OF 26N FROM 40W-95W BECOMING NARROWER N OF 26N FROM
63W-90W. THIS IS ADVECTING DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
THESE DYNAMICS ARE INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PRODUCE A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
OVER PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. IN ADDITION...STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER
COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA MOVING INTO THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN 70W-80W.

REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC...
A REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 31N44W 23N54W 21N63W.
BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM
16N-30N W OF 36W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
A SURFACE LOW IS FORECASTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR
22N52W WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW SHIFTING N
28N WITH THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 50W. OVER THE FAR E ATLC...UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N23W WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DIVERGENCE E
OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF W AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM
8N-13N E OF 12W AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 11N. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N28W SW TO 17N42W.
AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES W OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL
HEADING SW ACROSS THE CAPE VERDES RESULTING IN LIMITATION OF
CONVECTION TO S OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

$$
WALLACE


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