[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 162341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON 16 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W S OF 11N MOVING W 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...AND
APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO SPOTTY SHOWERS/TSTMS AND THERE IS NO APPARENT
ORGANIZATION. THE WAVE IS PRECEDING A SURGE OF AFRICAN
DUST...WITH THE LEADING EDGE ALONG A LINE 4N36W 10N43W 17N46W AS
OF 1945 UTC (THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGE). ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 45W-50W.

E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10
KT. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WAVE IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...SO ITS SIGNATURE
IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE WAVE IS MOVED BASED ON
CONTINUITY ALONG A POSITION NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 61W-70W
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF ERN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
NE VENEZUELA 10N-13N BETWEEN 68W-73W.

CENTRAL AMERICAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE AREA ALONG
86W/87W S OF 12N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED FARTHER W BASED ON
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED ABOUT 150 NM SW OF COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALIGNED GENERALLY OVER LAND
FROM SE NICARAGUA TO THE PANAMA CANAL ZONE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N10W 7N20W 4N30W 8N44W...THEN
ALONG 5N50W 11N66W...THEN ALONG 8N74W 11N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF IS SWINGING ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER TROF
RESTING ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO...AND HAS BEEN INITIATING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 22N
BETWEEN 94W-100W. THE TSTMS WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU ARE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE AND
WILL SOON BECOME ELEVATED OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN/GULF
WATERS...BUT THE TSTMS LOCATED ALONG THE COAST HAVE BEEN MAINLY
SLOW-MOVING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY BETWEEN HOUSTON
AND CORPUS CHRISTI. ELSEWHERE...WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES IS
CENTERED S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 27N90W WITH A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING FROM TALLAHASSEE FL TO 26N94W. THIS
BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
FRONT NE OF THE LOW.

CARIBBEAN...
1006 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W WITH A
TROF TRAILING SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N81W...AND NE
ACROSS SE CUBA TO THE SRN BAHAMAS. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BUT HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED AS FAR AS CONVECTION GOES. RIGHT NOW...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
72W-78W WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS SLIDING ACROSS JAMAICA AND
HAITI. THE UPPER FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD SWLY FLOW COMING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC...WHICH IS DRAWING IN DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE
FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES SW OF GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA AND IS
PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...AND THESE DYNAMICS ARE INTERACTING WITH THE
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SUPPLY TO PRODUCE A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
SW OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY FALLING FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HRS AS A WEAK SFC TROF REMAINS
NEAR THE AREA. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF CONTINUED
HEAVY RAIN...AND OTHER ISLANDS IN THE AREA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK OVER CNTRL AMERICA AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE
PACIFIC WATERS AND HEADS TO THE E/NE.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR W ATLC WATERS IS LIFTING NE
OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IS LEAVING GENERALLY WLY FLOW
OVER THE ATLC W OF 50W. A SFC RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG 32N WITH A
1022 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N59W. THE MESSY
WEATHER CONTINUES FARTHER E NEAR THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF ALONG
32N39W 26N50W 22N60W. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED TO THE E
OF THE TROF FROM 16N-30N WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING UP TO 550 NM TO THE SE. A SFC LOW MAY BE
ATTEMPTING TO FORM ALONG THE TROF NEAR 22N56W WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER E...A
CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
29N22W WITH A TROF EXTENDING S ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROF IS ENHANCING TSTMS OVER PARTS OF W
AFRICA IN THE USUAL RAINY AREAS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
FROM 7N-14N E OF 12W. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES
TO SPEW OFF THE COAST OF MAURITANIA HEADING GENERALLY SW ACROSS
THE CAPE VERDES. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SAND ARE STILL BEING
REPORTED AT SEVERAL COASTAL STATIONS WITH VISIBILITIES RUNNING
BELOW 4 NM IN THE DUST PLUME.

$$
BERG


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