[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090025
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN 08 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 14N MOVING W 10
KT.  AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 34W-36W...AND FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN
32W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 73W/74W S OF 16N MOVING W
10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-74W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N20W 7N35W 4N40W 2N51W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 12W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N78W IS
PRODUCING SE 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  FAIR
SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.  THICK SMOKE IS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE W GULF W OF 94W AND S OF 26N MOVING NW.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER SE
TEXAS MOVING E.  RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CORPUS CHRISTIE TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER THE SE GULF...S
FLORIDA...AND CUBA.  EXPECT THE NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS OVER
TEXAS TO DIMINISH BY EARLY MORNING WITH SLY FLOW TO PERSIST OVER
THE W GULF AT THE 24 HOUR POINT.

CARIBBEAN...
TRADES IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO
INCLUDE THE GULF OF URABA...N COLOMBIA...AND N VENEZUELA.  A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA PRODUCING
ADDITION SCATTERED SHOWERS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM PANAMA TO CUBA.
SW FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS SENDING LARGE AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN... PROVIDING MORE
FUEL FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE RAINY DAY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.  THE FRONT
TO THE N OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT NEAR HISPANIOLA...
WHICH COULD TURN INTO A DANGEROUS SITUATION DUE TO CONTINUED
HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...POSSIBLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO PUERTO RICO TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC...
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTER OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N78W.
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA E OF BERMUDA ALONG 32N58W AND EXTENDS
SW TO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS ALONG 24N65W 21N73W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF FRONT N OF
24N.  A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W.
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N26W 28N33W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N
BETWEEN 60W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN
40W-60W.  A BROAD TROUGH IS E OF 40W TO W AFRICA N OF 15N.  AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED DEEP WITHIN THE
TROPICS NEAR 8N20W.

$$
FORMOSA


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