[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081703
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 08 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA... GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 15N MOVING W 10
KT.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE WAVE HAS IMPROVED SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH A V-LIKE SHAPE ON VISIBLE IMAGES WITH INCREASING
CURVATURE NOTED.  THE WEATHER ALONG THE WAVE REMAINS LIMITED TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 72W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15
KT.  OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... THERE
ARE FEW MARKERS OF THE WAVE AND THE POSITION IS MOSTLY BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION.  ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 14N-17N FROM 70W-73W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N21W 7N34W 3N40W 2N51W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 7N13W
6N18W AND S OF 3N W OF 47W OVER WATER.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
60 NM OF 2N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
GENERALLY QUIET TODAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRES AT THE SFC CONTINUING
THE PLEASANT LATE SPRING WEATHER IN THE E GULF.  CONDITIONS ARE
GETTING WINDIER IN THE W GULF WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ALONG SE TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO SE MEXICO ALONG WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.  A SQUALL LINE OVER E TEXAS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY INLAND AND COULD AFFECT MOSTLY THE COASTAL
AREAS OF SE TEXAS.  AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE UP THE E COAST OF MEXICO...AND THESE
PARTICULATES ARE CREATING HAZY SUNSHINE OVER THE SW GULF.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
PRODUCING THE TSTMS WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS TAKEN OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF.  UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW RUNS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE REGION WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ZIPPING
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET.  LITTLE
LARGE-SCALE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH THE IMPULSE OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING ENE...KEEPING MOST RAIN JUST N OF THE
AREA.  GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MORNING LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE OCCURRING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO.  AREAS
OF SMOKE ORIGINATING FROM SRN MEXICO MAY ALSO BE PICKED UP IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BROUGHT IN OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN...
CONVECTION TODAY LOOKS TO BE FAVORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM JAMAICA TO COSTA
RICO ENHANCING SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-82W.  SW
FLOW E OF THE TROF IS SENDING LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NEWD ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN... PROVIDING MORE FUEL FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE TSTM DAY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.  THE FRONT TO THE N OF THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT NEAR HISPANIOLA...WHICH COULD TURN
INTO A DANGEROUS SITUATION DUE TO CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...POSSIBLY SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO PUERTO RICO BY MID-WEEK.  ELSEWHERE... TYPICAL
TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE A-PLENTY IN THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SAVE A FEW TSTMS
JUST S OF THE ISLE OF PINES.

ATLANTIC...
THE AREA W OF 60W IS DOMINATED BY THE STRONG COASTAL NOR'EASTER
STILL AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROF SAGS DOWN INTO THE REGION AND A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR
SWEEPING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA E OF
BERMUDA ALONG 32N59W 26N64W SW TO THE TURKS/CAICOS ISLANDS AND A
PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROF EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO 24N65W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT E OF THE FRONT AND TROF IS PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN A NARROW BAND ABOUT 120 NM E OF
THE BOUNDARIES.  CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW COULD BE
INCREASED FROM TODAY DUE TO A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH... CAUSING STRONGER UPPER
DIVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 27N.  AN UPPER RIDGE
IS CENTERED FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ALONG 48W AND IS TAKING MOST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF THE AREA...LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 9N-25N BETWEEN 20W-60W. AN UPPER
TROF LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS DRY AIR FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO THE FAR NW CAPE VERDES THEN 10N40W WITH AN 100 KT JET
SHOOTING INTO NW AFRICA...SENDING HIGH CLOUDS OUT OF THE TROPICS
NEWD TOWARDS THE CANARIES AND THE MOROCCAN COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS EMBEDDED DEEP WITHIN THE TROPICS NEAR 7N26W WITH
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EWD TOWARDS SIERRA LEONE AND
LIBERIA...AND WWD ALONG THE N COAST OF S AMERICA INTO A WEAK
CENTER NEAR 6N50W THEN W TO ERN VENEZUELA.  THE ATLC RIDGE
REMAINS FIRM IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WEAKER-THAN-AVERAGE IN THE
E ATLC.

$$
BLAKE

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