[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011817
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 01 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N10W 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 1N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 4W-6W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
9W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
1N-3N BETWEEN 20W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG
30N80W 23N90W 16N90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTING IS E OF THE FRONT OFF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 82W-87W MOVING E.  FLORIDA
PRESENTLY HAS OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS S OF 30N.  WINDS W OF THE
FRONT ARE FROM THE N AT 20-25 KT.  WINDS E OF THE
FRONT ARE FROM THE S AT 15-20 KT.  A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG
THE BASE OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG 17N76W
22N99W 25N100W.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS EXTEND FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO
THE COAST S OF 23N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO N OF 28N MOVING E.  WESTERLY FLOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA... A LARGE
AREA OF SMOKE/HAZE CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD FROM S MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SLOWLY PROGRESS TO S FLORIDA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AND REMAINING E OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES.  SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N
OF 15N AND E OF 70W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N80W.  A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS NE TO HISPANIOLA AND THE W ATLANTIC.  EXPECT THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA TO GET SOME CONVECTION DUE TO THE FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT THE NE CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE TO HAVE SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED N FLORIDA AND HAS CONTINUED OFF THE
FLORIDA E COAST N OF COCOA BEACH.  OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT.  A 1024 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N65W.  A WEAKENING 1016 MB
LOW IS NEAR 30N59W.  A 1012 MB DEVELOPING GALE LOW IS FURTHER E
NEAR 27N50W SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW FROM
22N-30N BETWEEN 40W-50W.  A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
N OF 10N AND E OF 40W. THE UPPER PATTERN HAS RIDGING OVER THE
ATLC W OF 60W...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
BETWEEN 45W-60W... AND GENERAL ZONAL FLOW E OF 45W.  THE CENTRAL
ATLC TROUGH IS THE MAIN SHOW IN TOWN...WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT
FLOW TO THE EAST PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-51W.
EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES TO
GALE FORCE.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 26N38W IN 24 HOURS
WITH THE STRONGEST AND MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN
200-300 NM EAST OF THE LOW AND WITHIN 100-200 NM E OF A TROUGH
TRAILING SWD TO 17N50W. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIG
WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS
SLOWLY NEWD PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.  FURTHER
S...THE DEEP TROPICS ARE CONTROLLED BY A MID/UPPER RIDGE WHICH
CUTS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG ROUGHLY 5N/6N.  MOST OF THE ITCZ
RELATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED W OF 40W OWING TO A LARGE AFRICAN
DUST OUTBREAK MARCHING WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING
EDGE NEAR 46W.

$$
FORMOSA


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