[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN 01 MAY 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N35W 3N52W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES COUPLED WITH
A 130 KT UPPER JET THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC TRIGGERS AN AREA OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS OVER THE E GLFMEX AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED N
OF 25N AND WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W.
FRONT CONTINUES SWD INTO S MEXICO JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM W OF FRONT. FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY
OVER E MEXICO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDINESS NOTED TO THE EAST OF
FRONT S OF 23N. EXPECT AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSLATE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA
TODAY.  HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER
MID-MORNING AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS NEWD ALONG THE E COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.  SURPRISINGLY...THE COLD FRONT ITSELF NOW APPEARS
WILL CLEAR S FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT
AN UNSEASONABLY LATE PUSH OF CONTINENTAL AIR.  ELSEWHERE OVER
THE AREA...A LARGE AREA OF SMOKE/HAZE CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD
FROM S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AMPLIFYING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO A
POSITION JUST NW OF THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER NEAR 12N74W.
THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE DRYING ALOFT WHICH HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 80W.  DESPITE DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF 70W.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS
SUCH...EXPECT SCATTERED SHALLOW BASED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO E CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY.  OVER THE  W
CARIBBEAN...VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA.  INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD SHOULD TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TAKE SHAPE.  HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF WILL REMAIN LARGELY N OF THE AREA SAVE W AND CENTRAL CUBA
WHICH MAY BE CLIPPED BY SOME OF THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  THE WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN MONDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS RIDGING OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W...A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-60W... AND
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW E OF 45W.  THE CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH IS THE
MAIN SHOW IN TOWN...WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE EAST
PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-51W.  AT THE
SURFACE...AN INTENSIFYING 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N52W
WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO 23N40W. A TROUGH
TRAILS FROM THE LOW SWD TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR THE ISLAND
OF MARTINIQUE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF TROUGH S OF 20N.   EXPECT INCREASING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES TO GALE FORCE.  THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 26N40W IN 24 HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
AND MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 200-300 NM EAST OF THE
LOW AND WITHIN 100-200 NM E OF A TROUGH TRAILING SWD TO 17N50W.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BIG WEATHER MAKER THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.  FURTHER S...THE DEEP TROPICS ARE
CONTROLLED BY A MID/UPPER RIDGE WHICH CUTS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
ROUGHLY 5N/6N.  MOST OF THE ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION IS CONFINED
W OF 40W OWING TO A LARGE AFRICAN DUST OUTBREAK MARCHING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH LEADING EDGE NEAR 46W.

$$
RHOME




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net