[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU 31 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH -+0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W...AND ALONG
THE BRAZIL COAST FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN 70W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN TEXAS FROM YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST...AS THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW IS
FOUND IN WISCONSIN. A NEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AREA...SET TO BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST REGION. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT RUNS FROM A TEXAS PANHANDLE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO
WEST TEXAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
COVER THE GULF WATERS EAST OF 29N91W 25N97W 19N92W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WEST OF 70W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA. THE CIMSS
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 31/0900 UTC SHOW THAT THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...CONNECTED TO THE SURFACE
32N51W 25N60W 21N72W COLD FRONT...REACHES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ALONG 32N51W
25N60W 23N64W...CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM
23N64W TO 21N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS QUITE CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
RUNNING THROUGH 32N50W TO 26N51W TO 19N60W TO 14N65W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N52W 29N45W 321N44W
BEYOND 33N43W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF
20N IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH TO FOLLOW. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N44W. EASTERN ATLANTIC DEEP
LAYER TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 35N27W TO 24N22W...LOSING ITS IDENTITY
JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DISSIPATING SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH 32N21W TO 24N23W TO 19N30W TO 16N34W.

$$
MT



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