[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310619
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU 31 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 6N10W 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W.
SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE AFRICA
COAST FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 9W AND 12W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 50W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FOUND OFF THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
COAST FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 48W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 80W...UPPER LEVEL WINDS WEST
OF 80W AND MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS EAST OF 80W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IN TEXAS FROM YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST...AS THE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW IS
FOUND ALONG THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A
SURFACE LONG-SLEEVE SHIRT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA OF CLOUDS IN THE GULF WATERS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RACING NORTHEASTWARD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WEST OF 70W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ALONG 32N52W
27N60W 24N66W...CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM
24N66W TO 22N72W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT EXISTS QUITE CLEARLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
RUNNING THROUGH 32N52W TO 24N55W TO 20N57W TO 16N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N
TO 31N BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS NORTH OF 20N IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH TO FOLLOW. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND AN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N44W. EASTERN
ATLANTIC DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS THROUGH 33N27W TO 21N26W TO
16N36W. SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N23W TO 24N25W TO 19N30W
TO 16N36W. 37W...DISSIPATING TO 18N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE
THROUGH 32N27W 28N27W 23N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS CLOUDINESS NORTH OF 28N.

$$
MT


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