[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED 30 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 5N20W 1S47W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG 34N97W 29N101W MOVING SE
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  1005 MB HEAT LOW IS ALONG THE COAST
OF NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR
26N78W.  RETURN FLOW FROM THE SURFACE HIGH IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT
SE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW.  FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
80W FROM 20N TO BEYOND 30N.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH SW UPPER FLOW.  A 120 KT JETSTREAM
EXTENDS FROM S TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH S
SURFACE FLOW REMAINING E OF THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TRADEWINDS ARE FLOWING DUE W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
60W-70W.  OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W TRADEWINDS SPLIT EITHER
SW TOWARDS PANAMA AROUND THE LOW...OR NW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N80W.  RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
N TO CUBA BEYOND 20N80W.  PACIFIC MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE W OF THE RIDGE AXIS ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS E OF THE RIDGE AXIS.  EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W.  COLD FRONT IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N58W 28N62W 22N72W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT N OF 28N.  1022
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N47W.  1010 MB GALE
LOW IS FURTHER E AT 32N34W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO
27N39W.   A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N24W
24N30W 18N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN EVENLY SPACED RIDGE
TROUGH RIDGE TROUGH RIDGE PATTERN EXTENDS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF
20N BETWEEN 80W-10W.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS HAVE THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS BENEATH THEM.  FURTHER S...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-10W.

$$
FORMOSA


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