[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED 30 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W...THE EQUATOR AT 39W...3S43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS FROM
2.5N TO 3.5N BETWEEN 31W AND 40W. ANOTHER SMALL CLUSTER OF
PRECIPITATION IS FOUND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 12.5W AND 14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2S TO 5S BETWEEN 33W AND 37W...MOSTLY IN THE WATERS OFF
THE BRAZIL COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN CENTRAL UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. THE WATER
VAPOR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN CENTRAL KANSAS AND THE
TROUGH RUNS SOUTHWARD FROM THERE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...BEING SUPPORTED BY THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGH...IS STILL IN CENTRAL TEXAS. A 30 TO 60 NM WIDE
BAND OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS IS CENTERED ALONG 25N100W
29N94W BEYOND 32N91W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 26N
BETWEEN 90W AND THE MEXICO COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
FROM MEXICO TO CUBA...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 23N60W.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 17N87W 17N74W 18N60W...FEEDING
INTO THE CLOUD BAND OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS ALONG 32N62W 25N70W 21N76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS ALONG 32N62W
25N70W 21N76W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RUNS
THROUGH 33N62W TO 28N62W 24N64W 20N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N62W 30N59W BEYOND 32N58W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 50 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N51W
26N55W 22N62W 19N70W. OTHER HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN
46W AND 63W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N
IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
TROUGH TO FOLLOW. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 33N49W TO 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N48W TO
23N60W. DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...NEAR
32N35W TO 19N38W TO 10N43W. SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N26W
TO 25N30W 20N37W...DISSIPATING TO 18N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF LINE
THROUGH 32N27W 28N27W 23N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS CLOUDINESS
NORTH OF 28N.

$$
MT


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