[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON 28 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N1W 5N20W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4S BETWEEN 30W-50W INCLUDING
COASTAL AREAS OF BRAZIL FROM 36W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE E UNITED
STATES CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE TN/NC BORDER WITH ASSOCIATED
TROUGH TRAILING SWD INTO THE GLFMEX ALONG OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO.  STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW TO
THE EAST COUPLED WITH A 130 KT JET ALONG THE SE UNITED STATES
COAST IS PRODUCING LIFT/DYNAMICS ALONG THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO S MEXICO OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE IT
WEAKENS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS.  THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM RESIDES JUST
N OF THE AREA BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S
FLORIDA EQUATORWARD OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE SWD OVER E PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CONFLUENCE AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS PRODUCING RAPID CLEARING FROM W TO E THIS EVENING.   NLY
FLOW WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF COOLING TREND OVER THE E GULF AND
FLORIDA.  HOWEVER...THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL
TRANSITION QUICKLY ACROSS THE GLFMEX REACHING S FLORIDA TUE
NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY
MID-WEEK AND DOMINATE UNTIL THE NEXT UPSTREAM WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES BY LATE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN...
A MODERATE COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD OVER THE GULF HAS FINALLY
BROKEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN.  THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO S MEXICO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CURRENTLY AFFECTING AN AREA FROM W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.  EXPECT DYNAMICS/LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWS THE ATTENDANT UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW BASED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM W CUBA TO N BELIZE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE AREA...STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS ANCHORED BY A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH NEAR 12N75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR IS CREATING A STABLE PATTERN ALOFT LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG CUTOFF IS LOCATED OVER THE E UNITED STATES WITH ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF FRONT N OF 30N AND WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF
FRONT S OF 30N. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL CLIP THE N
PORTION OF THE AREA ALONG 30N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
FRONT SLIDES EWD EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE S BAHAMAS BY TUE
AFTERNOON.  AS SUCH...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY N OF 30N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE FRONT TO 24N.  SHIFTING EWD...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NWD OVER THE W ATLC TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC
BETWEEN 30W-55W WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ENTERING THE AREA ALONG 32N34W SWD TO 22N50W. SECOND
SURGE/COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N38W EXTENDING
WSW ALONG 27N47W TO 30N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 28N FROM 30W-40W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE E ATLC...A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE PREVAILS
WITH THE UPPER PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W AFRICA
NEAR MAURITANIA TO 2N40W.  AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N40W. VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION AND ITCZ ACTIVITY
REMAINS CONFINED NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
RHOME


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