[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON 28 MAR 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N18W S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR
25W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 2S45W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE AXIS E OF 33W AND NUMEROUS CLUSTERS ARE S OF 1N ACROSS
THE EQUATOR W OF 35W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING OVER THE E UNITED STATES IS THE MAIN
WEATHER MAKER TODAY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE E OVER THE N GULF
WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. AMPLIFYING RIDGE
LIES IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS UP TO 130 KT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE E U.S. FROM THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WEAKENING
OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT AND
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS HAS PUSHED INTO THE E GULF CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN OVER THE SE UNITED STATES AND A LESS
IMPRESSIVE LINE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
SE GULF WITHIN 120 NM IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO THE
COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT
E AND CLEAR FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...STRONG POST-FRONTAL N FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN...
STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
BY A WELL-DEFINED UPPER HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W.
RESULTING UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND IS QUITE DRY WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CREATING A STABLE PATTERN ALOFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALSO NOTED IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION...ARE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT IS OVER THE GULF AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES.
THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING.

ATLANTIC...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE E UNITED STATES. UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SE U.S. AND GULF WITH A WARM/STATIONARY
FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SE TO
30N69W. ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF LINE FROM 30N80W TO BEYOND 32N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL
EMERGE OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH
A LINE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
TO MOVE E ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS/LIFT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 30N. SHIFTING E...BROAD AMPLIFIED DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 32W-55W WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W SW ALONG
27N41W TO 23N50W AND A SECOND SURGE/COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA
NEAR 32N42W EXTENDING WSW ALONG 29N48W TO 32N55W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N FROM 35W-42W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 42W-50W. OVER THE E ATLC...AN
AMPLIFYING RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS N TO
JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH THE UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER
MAURITANIA AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH A
1023 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N16W
SW TO 19N38W. VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION AND ITCZ ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED NEAR
THE EQUATOR.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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