[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 242349
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W MOVING N.  A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N TO 31N75W.  THE SYSTEM IS BENEATH A
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA TO JUST W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE TO THE
E OF THIS TROUGH IS CAUSING SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION MAINLY N AND E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 22N-32N
BETWEEN 70W-75W.  SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20
KT.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 13N MOVING W
15-20 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE.  CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER SURINAME IS ALONG 57W S OF 14N MOVING
W 15 KT. A SMALL INVERTED-V CIRCULATION IS NOTED N OF THE
SURINAME COAST.   WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 54W-59W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 20N MOVING W
15 KT. STRONG SELY FLOW IS FEEDING INTO THE E SIDE OF THE WAVE
AND IS IMPINGING ON THE SOUTH-FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS ON
HISPANIOLA. THIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 69W-71W. THE FLOW WILL STAY OUT OF THE SE FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 12-18 HRS WHICH COULD SUSTAIN TSTMS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN STRETCHES
ALONG 81W THEN CURVES NE ACROSS CNTRL CUBA AND THE CNTRL
BAHAMAS...MOVING W 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S
OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 77W-80W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
ON THE N SHORE OF CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FROM GUATEMALA SWD INTO THE PACIFIC IS
ALONG 90W...MOVING W 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 13N-18N
BETWEEN 85W-93W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 10N20W 10N30W 6N40W 6N60W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 10W-20W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 18W-25W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PREDOMINATELY 10-15 KT EASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF
MEXICO DUE TO A E/W SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF S OF 26N AND
W OF 90W WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
91W-98W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE.  DRY AIR IS WRAPPING OVER MUCH OF THE E GULF...S
FLORIDA...AND FLORIDA STRAITS...PRODUCING RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY THE RESULT OF AT
LEAST ONE OF THE MYRIAD TROPICAL WAVES MOVING W ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN IS
ALSO BEING FORCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS W CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUBSIDENCE
WITH THE TROUGH HAS PUT MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN UNDER MAINLY
FAIR SKIES. DRY AIR HAS ALSO ADVECTED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN
FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH NO CONVECTION NOTED FROM THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 67W.   ELSEWHERE...A 1010
MB SFC LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 83W-86W.

WEST ATLANTIC...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE.

CENTRAL/EAST ATLANTIC...
A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N47W.  A
TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 24N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 43W-46W.  HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 42W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 55W-73W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 5N
BETWEEN 40W-55W.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 15N30W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
FORMOSA


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