[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131818
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 13 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 29W/30W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING
WEST 10 KT. NEARBY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PART OF THE
ITCZ.

IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 50W/51W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W ARE BEING
SHEARED BY THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW.

MOVING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 68W/69W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST
10 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA WHICH RIGHT NOW IS
SEEING UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT WIND FLOW...FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE WEST WITH A TROUGH...AND UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATION MAINLY ALONG 10N IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
NO DEEP LEVEL THUNDERSTORMS.

IN CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 20N88W 13N90W...HEADING INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BELIZE INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CENTRAL
AMERICA ALSO FINDS ITSELF IN AN ELONGATED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ 11N16W 8N28W...8N32W 9N49W...9N52W 10N60W 12N67W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W
AT THE COAST AND 18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W...
AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN
30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE GULF IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH U.S.A. CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTH TEXAS
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
22N106W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS
WEST OF 30N85W 22N88W...AND NORTHWEST OF 22N88W 19N94W. LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM THE EASTERN
GULF TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF...WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N83W 25N87W 22N90W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
FLOW MAY BE ENHANCING THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT/PRECIPITATION...WITH
THE WESTERN GULF CYCLONIC FLOW...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...AND CYCLONIC FLOW ELSEWHERE THANKS TO
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM 26N66W TO 20N80W TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA BORDER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RUNS FROM 26N66W TO 20N80W TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N75W
13N76W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THREE
CLUSTERS...WITHIN 40 TO 50 NM RADIUS OF 15N76W...14N74W AND
16N72W. MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE
SEEN FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING IF SOME OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WERE TO MAKE ITS
WAY CLOSER AND CLOSER TO HISPANIOLA. IT IS OVER THE WATER RIGHT
NOW...BUT MAY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IF THE CLUSTERS MAINTAIN THEIR FORM AND REACH LAND...
AND IF THE TROUGH REMAINS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...NOW
FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 21N BETWEEN 81W AND
84W ARE RIGHT IN THE TROUGH. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF 78W SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. E CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE 25N62W MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 66W AND 77W
ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW
BETWEEN THESE DIFFERING SYSTEMS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...FROM A TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE TROUGH 31N75W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM 26N66W TO 20N80W TO THE EASTERN HONDURAS/ NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA BORDER. SURFACE TROUGH 29N60W 22N65W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...UNDER BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE FROM 35N12W TO
1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N29W TO 30N50W TO 34N65W
TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N76W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF THE TROUGH...NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 40W. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF 32N. THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALONG 18N32W TO 26N31W
BEYOND 31N30W.

$$
MT


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