[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 111441
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005

ARLENE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THE STORM CONTINUES
WITH A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE CIRCULATION...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO SOME BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING AROUND 990 MB ACCORDING TO FIXES FROM
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT 60 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...THIS ESTIMATE MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. DUE TO THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES OF
ARLENE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ARE DECREASING.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WATER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION...LIKE THE ONE THAT
OCCURRED YESTERDAY...COULD BRING THE WINDS UP TO HURRICANE STATUS.
GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE HURRICANE
WARNING AT THIS TIME.

ARLENE HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
STEERING CURRRENTS IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD
CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. AFTER LANDFALL
ARLENE SHOULD WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE SPREADING HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE NOT JUST A COASTAL EVENT AND
HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND AND LONG AFTER THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      11/1500Z 29.6N  87.4W    60 KT
 12HR VT     12/0000Z 31.5N  88.0W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     12/1200Z 34.0N  88.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     13/0000Z 37.5N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW


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