[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 100958
HLSTAE
FLZ008-012-014-101400-

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT (TAE)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INCLUDING WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES.

...WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...IN GULF
COUNTY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND THROUGH
SATURDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 560 MILES SOUTH OF
APALACHICOLA.

ARLENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
OF ARLENE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE PANHANDLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN
POSSIBLE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
MAY BEGIN SATURDAY AROUND NOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF AROUND 40 MPH OR MORE WITH HIGHER GUSTS COULD PERSIST FOR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE'S ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

...RAINFALL AND FLOOD POTENTIAL INFORMATION...
THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...YET FLOODING IS A CONCERN. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE ENTIRE AREA CAN EXPECT
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ACCUMULATED THE PAST TWO
WEEKS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...RESULTING IN MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS.
RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
APALACHICOLA...CHIPOLA... OCHLOCKONEE..ST MARKS AND WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVERS ARE ALL RUNNING SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE BANKFULL LEVELS WHILE THE
AUCILLA RIVER IS JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FORTUNATELY THE
CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER...THOUGH RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL...STILL HAS PLENTY
OF STORAGE ROOM IN THE HEADWATERS ABOVE WEST POINT. POOL ELEVATIONS
BELOW WEST POINT INCLUDING GEORGE LOCK AND DAM AND WOODRUFF DAM ARE
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL.

THE RIVERS CURRENTLY RUNNING HIGH CAN HANDLE TWO TO THREE INCHES
OF BASIN WIDE AVERAGE RAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT MAIN STEM RIVER
FLOODING WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...LOCALIZED HIGH INTENSITY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN GENERATE SHARP LOCAL RISES NOT REFLECTED IN LONG RANGE
RIVER FORECASTS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM CENTER WILL BE PASSING WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...AND
LOCAL WINDS WILL BE ONSHORE DURING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD CAUSE TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG
THE COAST OF WALTON...BAY AND GULF COUNTIES. RESIDENTS ALONG THE
PANHANDLE COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES AND HEED
ADVICE FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

LOCAL TIDES FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY ARE AS FOLLOWS...

SAINT MARKS RIVER ENTRANCE...
TODAY: HIGH/4:14 PM...LOW/10:29 AM AND 11:44 PM:
SATURDAY: HIGH/6:20 AM AND 4:51 PM...LOW/11:11 AM

APALACHICOLA...
TODAY: LOW/12:33 PM...HIGH/9:01 AM AND 5:16 PM:
SATURDAY: LOW/1:46 AM AND 1:30 PM...HIGH/9:26 AM AND 6:07 PM:

PORT ST. JOE
TODAY: HIGH/12:41 PM...LOW/11:53 PM
SATURDAY: HIGH/1:12 PM

SAINT ANDREW BAY AT PANAMA CITY...
TODAY: HIGH/12:08 PM...LOW/11:33 PM:
SATURDAY: HIGH/12:39 PM...LOW/11:53 PM:


...RIP CURRENTS...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL SUPPORT STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT
RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND SATURDAY. ONLY EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD
CONSIDER ENTERING THE WATER.

...TORNADO THREAT...
THE PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IN TROPICAL SYSTEMS IS THE
RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM. AS ARLENE MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO THE WARNING AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE REGION
FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
ARLENE MOVES INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONS OUTSIDE YOUR HOME SHOULD BE STARTED NOW WHILE THE
WEATHER IS STILL GOOD. IT MAY BE DANGEROUS TO WORK OUTSIDE SATURDAY
MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BLOW LOOSE ITEMS AROUND
CREATING A HAZARD. STORE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS TRASH CANS OR YARD
FURNITURE. POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR OVER AREAS AFFECTED BY TROPICAL
STORM WINDS. CHECK THAT YOUR BATTERY OPERATED RADIOS ARE WORKING.
HAVE FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND ALONG WITH SPARE BATTERIES.  ALSO...BE SURE
TO HAVE CASH ON HAND...AS CREDIT CARDS AND ATM MACHINES MAY NOT WORK
WITHOUT POWER.

IF YOU OWN A BOAT...MOVE IT TO A SAFE LOCATION.

ALL PEOPLE IN THE POTENTIAL PATH OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATEST FORECAST UPDATES AND
ADVICE OR ORDERS FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL
TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE BY 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

$$

BOLINSKI
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